Posts by "raulin"

Ashraf ..Do you have data on the positive predictive value in head and shoulders pattern when neckline broken? It should be 70 percent plus but I don't think it's anywhere near that.

Spec are you answering your own questions ? You asked why gold has sold off so much? Then you give a reason for it based on technicals ?

Hi Ashraf . What we are at is clearly an inflection point with higher yields on 10 yr Treasuries curbing stock market gains. It is likely that US govt will above else attempt to curb these yields as they reflect higher long term mortgage rates and a big brake on a very delicate housing "recovery". This will nominally have a very dollar negative effect but when you look at what you buy with your dollars euro and gbp , aud, nzd.These are in even worse condition than US (UK and eurozone ) where at least the US is the world's reserve currency and everywhere else is also indulging in quantitative easing so if the US fails, they do too as well. Underpinning the recovery is a bottom in house prices which has NOT been reached and likely to be derailed by higher long term interest rates. China's growth is all export based, they have been stockpiling commodities with no increase in domestic demand ..so if they have no one to sell to they are not going to do too well either and that disposes of aussie and NZD.It's really interesting some of my friends are now looking to buy in good areas of London as if they think now is bargain of the century but it ain't no bargain if we head back to 1997 prices like Japan did!