Posts by "scaramongo"

few more economics cycle

No,
fed has been dovish as for the indices correction ofr secodn semester

will raise rate in 2016 august

CHINA IS CONSOLIDATING PART OF THE FIVE cpc POLICIES;
then its always a game of u agree i dont agree but the back scene is a consensus wih usa and europe over this bank and the sdr plan via the imf.
dont forget that china is always redeemable of negotiating with the main trading counterpart due to transfert of technologies and market openess.
china is great but cant be see as dangerous for the industrialisation of the joining country.
they would be only a depositery of the china export balance line of credit.
i dont agree on everything but the mercantilism...

fomc meeting wednesday
all eyes on the wednesdauy event with a focus on rate hike.alternatively we have several central bank which have cut their repo refinancing rates among the russian and korean central.

several charts several options for interpreting the possible or not rate hike
CL, as said , buying opportunity bythre next two weeks despite the negative stance of several head commodities researh of major invest bank mong citigroup and goldman sachs. back in 2013 i have been caught in squeeze market which cost me quite much.
it looks the chart on crude is having the same pattern that at this time, an inverted fractal 3 3 5.
so probably a 44 43 level this week with an impetus from fed statement from teh market makers in new york desk.

euro, 1.02436 around this level will see some wait and see attitude from the market participants. some are having a negative outlook for euro but on a long term chart we can observe that on a monthly a weekly basis 1.05 1.03 is a major support that was a resistance tested several times.

a rate hike will send the ust yield higher a s simple mecanism. which will widen the spread between EU bonds and the us treasur bonds. Europe the first trading partners of the us is feeling a weakening in its core states like in germany the last months. so the widening spread between eu and us yields could probably triggered a buying pressure on eu bond with yields chasing with british pound as a commodity currency.
it will be interesting to check this begin week the aussie dollar and the yen to see any verification of the factored in of this rate hike stance by yellen and voting members. so chairwoman yellen will be the first since greenspan to hike rate in the us since a long time.
in case of rate hike from fed of a 25 or 50 basis points, lets observe the bank of korea last move on its policy and the effect abenomic and its quantitative easing program on the region.
a rate will prompt investors to buy korea and regional bonds and sell the won korean.the abenomics program on korean won had a reverse competitive effects on korean competitiveness for its export product and the rapatriation of its value in its books.

so we have something unseen in the world macroeconomics and fundamental environment: a combination of rate hike if any with two blocs conducting in parallel th econtinuation of its own bond buying programs.

DAX, ready for a sell off in case of a NO MOVE from the federal reserves or is it europe that is gonna lags the two blocs usa and asia pacific.its probable.

HI ROB
can not conclude at at a triple bottom for this period of time
if any, it is from the feb 2013 wit ha rejection on sight by end week.
so prob good uying opportunity despite negativity in fundamental in greece.yielding chasing against euro currency.