EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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The reason i believe that we are going to test march low's again is because I believe a credit contraction of the scale we are witnessing is simply too enormous to be resolved within few months and with few decisions by central banks.
Monetary policy has been proven to be lagging behind actual economy. In other words, central banks are REactive rather than being PROactive. Thus what has been done to face the crisis so far is only a reaction to what has happened. I believe that we are going to face another wave of problems very soon which central banks have not done anything yet in anticipation of them.
To me, there is a small chance for stocks to make new highs this year, but I see a good chance that stocks test march lows some time towards the end of this year or early next yr.
I know might opinion sounds a bit radical, but, hay, we are going through extraordinary times where anything is possible.
The ideas you present are really interesting. I would like to add another dimension to them by adding my perspective from business point of view.
I have great doubts about any green shoots and i have some doubt about having the worst behind us.
I lived in the US until DEC 08 where i owned retail business. Due to the recession/depression in the US, I left in Dec 08 to Venezuela. When i first arrived in Venezuela, it felt like anything but a recession going around the world. Business was excellent!!
However, it is only in the last couple of months that business owners started complaining about business getting slower. Business owners are now saying that June was the worst they've seen in long time, if ever. Major importers form china, located in Panama free zone and export to all latin america, are expecting things to get worse. Major exporting offices in China are painting a very bleak picture going forward.
I realize that many countries are indulging in QE, but each of those countries, except china, have a broken system that QE is barely keeping it together. As for the chinese stimulus, it would be a joke to assume that it could make up for the loss of US and European consumers that world has been, and still, dependent on. An exception for the US and European consumers, real estate bubbles throughout many countries have supported local consumers, but we all know what happened and still happening to those bubbles.
Furthermore, we are seeing the savings rate in the US going up really fast. I can see this happening all around the world even in countries with high savings rates such as emerging economies. People in emerging countries are not going to start spending more than they used to, while seeing all the problems happening in the developed countries. Talking to people from emerging economies I sense how worried they are. They assume that if countries such as US are facing such dire problems, then things are going to get worse for them. Even if that wasn't true, you can imagine how such a psychological factor could affect their spending habits.
Thus, even if we assume that the financial system has surpassed its worst phase, there is a lot of adjustment that needs to happen around the world, and as a result, the least I could say about the road ahead is that if things are not going to get worse, they are not going to get better any time soon.
Slaiman