EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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China's official PMI input prices subindex rose to 69.3 from 66.7 in December.
China's last issued GDP figures have OVERINVESTMENT all over them.
No rebalancing towards more consumer driven growth
Is there any change to your fundamental 1 month call now?
Why such a change, Catnip?
With all the charts set aside, could you kindly shed some fundamental light to unveil your reasoning behind the EURUSD going all the way to 1.50 and how that is supported by the PBOC that is jacking up rates and pulling cash out of the system to arrest surging inflation on the Mainland?
Indeed, we all know that over the last couple of weeks:
- European officials did finally manage to touch some ground with the PBOC to support further European periphery funding, at least in the beginning of the year
- The public mechanism of raising funds, which is auctions, has been scrambled. Its all done "privately" now. Apparently, with success
- The interest rate expectations in Germany, I take it, have swung, with the 2 year bunds selling off just HUGE (and elevated CPI and Ifo levels coming in handy), with the rest of the world pretty much tightening already
- Mr. Hu was visiting the US, and we all know that when that happens, the RMB suddenly appreciates, which is usually supportive of Euro
- Huge squeeze of record Euro short positions opened by January 10th
Isn't that already enough?
One can not help but notice, the EURUSD run up would be very much like the one we had in the end of 2008, if it wasn't for the opposing forces of emerging equity weakness and China being "difficult to analyze now" (in D. Tepper words).
But let's not forget we had two pretty much disappointing US employment reports in the row. What will happen to the USD on February 4?
China's inflation hit 4.6% in December, pushing the full-year 2010 consumer price index up 3.3%, while the national economy grew 10.3% last year, Hong Kong-based broadcaster Phoenix TV reported on its website Wednesday, without citing any sources.
China's November CPI rose 5.1%, which was a more than two-year high.
China's producer price index, a forward indicator for inflation, rose 5.9% last year, the report said.
The report cited unidentified central bank officials as saying the economic data had been leaked, but didn't directly attribute the detailed data to these officials.
Let's watch Chinese PMI tonight.
I do not comprehend
said,
Not if your call for 96 for crude does not hold
Seriously, is there any way one can look this stuff up on the internet (bloomberg?)?
Ashraf, what is your opinion (may I ask here) of the BBH fx research?
What I gather is that it is not the all time high China inflation, their ppi has been on the higher side of things for a while now, and that apparently there's no hike coming up this month (?), as authorities are confident to stop its further growth in December.
Besides, OECD oil floating ship reserves are reported down, just as crude imports into the US. Now I may be wrong but the price momentum is very strong.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that as Chinese party authorities recently cramped down on the electricity usage by local producers, the latter switched off the electric grid and turned to burning heavy oils instead. So further improvements in the official statistics guaranteed :)