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Posts by "usikpa"

100 Posts Total by "usikpa":
79 Posts by member
usikpa
(Moscow, Russia)
21 Posts by Anonymous "usikpa":
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 7:49
In Thread: EUR
What if really Spain and Portugal by applying for all-european assistance at the last minute MADE a deal with the ECB for no hike?

Just a thought...
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Mar 21, 2011 8:27
In Thread: USD
Ashraf,

How can one best trade a conviction there won't be QE3?
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 10:19
In Thread: EUR
3/17/2011 6:16:01 AM Greek unemployment rate rose in the fourth quarter of 2010 from the preceding three-month period.

The jobless rate climbed to 14.2 percent from 12.4 percent, the Hellenic Statistical Authority said Thursday. It was also up from 10.3 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2009.

The number of unemployed persons increased by 14.5 percent sequentially. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2009, unemployed persons were up 38.4 percent.
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Mar 14, 2011 14:27
In short.

1. Reactors keep melting away. That means hydrogen released with radiation from the damaged cooling system finds no way out, hence blows up. If wind changes, this will be worse than Chernobyl, some say anywhere between 10 to 20 per cent of Japanese islands may not be suitable for further living.

2. Everyone expects Japanese to order more construction materials. How are they going to pay for it? What are they going to sell? Will GDP fall this year 3 per cent? 5 per cent? Where will USD/ JPY be, come April?

3. There is speculation out there the same is going to happen in the Norhtern America (just google New Madrid) in the third decade of March. Who can say for sure?

Indeed these markets are for the brave
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Feb 24, 2011 12:27
That is correct, Catnip

Russian Urals mix is heavier and harder to refine, to put it simply, and hence always traded with a discount to Brent
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Feb 24, 2011 10:27
In Thread: EUR
Ashraf

Why is the market so optimistic about this inflation driven tight retorics of ECB? If anything, it is the European economy that litterally will suffer shortage of energy, not the US. What kind of growth will Italy / Germany show come end of 1Q2011?
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Feb 23, 2011 11:18
In Thread: EUR
Why do you say so, Catnip. The iron Frau does not seem to easily succumb to demands that she (and her party) lower German competitiveness.
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Feb 17, 2011 22:47
In Thread: USD
Catnip

If its not for the yields, then its not because of the Iranian ships that we see the dollar retreat this week, right?

As a side note, my feeling is that Gazprom is already out of favour, it is still a huge MSCI index play, but, arguably now, any advances in the development of shale gas in Europe will do it in. Sad.
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Feb 17, 2011 20:36
In Thread: USD
Two macro negatives issued for the dollar this week

Capacity utilization is down, not up
Real wages are down , not up

US Bond Market sees no immediate inflation threat (both of the above factors have got to be positive), hence the back up in bonds. Bond fund manages say though, this will last a week or so...
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Feb 12, 2011 6:44
Just a correction?
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/bonds-interest-rates-Australia-dollar-economy-pd20110211-DY4B9?opendocument&src=rss

...
Long term interest rates are heading inexorably higher and the Australian dollar is coming down, according to one of the worlds leading market analysts, Charles Nenner, head of research at the Charles Nenner Research Centre in Amsterdam ...

... His first target is for the 10-year bond yield to climb to 4.3 per cent (from 3.7 per cent at present) while the yield on 30-year bonds will move to around 5.2 per cent (from its current level of 4.77 per cent).

At that point, he predicts the bond market will rally, with bond prices rising while yields drop back, because of fears over weakness in the US economy. After this rally, he predicts bond prices will fall, and bond yields will again push higher...