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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
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Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
12 years ago
Aug 3, 2012 11:58
i guess today unemp rate may drop to 8.1%, but ugly criminals may print 8.0%.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Aug 3, 2012 11:11
George, if we look at weekly from 6th May 2011 high we can see the move down is choppy but might be doing 5 waves down with the 5th near completed. Yes it might be completed but I prefer more downside to below the 1.1875 low which is also now a magnet. Once completed then I agree we would expect a decent ret up and I see some heavy resistance at c.1.3500/1.3550 ish.

If we now look back to the July 2008 high we have a nightmare pattern but my preferred count would be abc:A finishing at the 1.1875 low, then B move up to the May 2011 high at 1.4938, and now the C down in progress. The projections for completion of C would be at 1.0780 or ext at 0.9646. This count would render your 1.37 retracement unlikely for the near term but sometimes I am wrong so I respect your view !
Sir Ignore
United States
Posts: 3068
12 years ago
Aug 3, 2012 0:11
DaveO....cat needed now for his lightning recognition of flash spike stop/reverse level to counteract
spooky markets...
notice 4 hr short from 7/30 2291/83 (my trade 2291 short then stopped by trailer at 2241) however 4 hr still short from there surviving two near 1 pip misses for closing and then survived the flash spike..
and I missed the continuation south however.
now sidelined..boxed by nfp and weekend..

reserve investment now..more sails, rudders, rigging, and rum...
GeorgeBensonOldGrey
France
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Aug 2, 2012 23:02
do u remenber the short squeeze of 2011 .don't u think ther are high likelyhood it goes this way? complex pattern
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Aug 2, 2012 22:05
George, I agree the 78.6% at 1.2115 or maybe 127.2% support level at 1.2125.

I more likely to go for bust on the higher timeframe than contemplate 1.37 :-)

@Q, yes agree :-)
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
12 years ago
Aug 2, 2012 20:13
cat0nip, when will ur queen yield? face west on her knee...
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Aug 2, 2012 18:45
Draghi initially re-ignited expectations of imminent action when he directly hinted at re-activating bond purchases in the secondary market (mainly on the short end of the yield curve) and forecasted inflation to fall below 2%. But the market started turning around when Draghi reminded of the ECBs inability to purchase bonds in the primary market and the need for EFSF to receive unanimous eurozone approval in order to obtain the license to raise funds from the ECB. SEE HERE on why Euro remains most vulnerable to non-farm payrolls after Fed/ECB inaction
http://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/ashraf-laidi-blog.aspx


Ashraf
digi
Canada
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Aug 2, 2012 14:18
long if the line holds Hand shoulder upsid e down
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Aug 2, 2012 10:51
We might consider a ship's cat to deal with the rats if he promises to behave himself. Keelhauling will be order of the day for dissenters. Aye aye capain freebooter.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Aug 2, 2012 10:44
Nice to hear positive comment @ skipper --- always plenty of negative out there :-( One unfortunate neg is that the streets of London and sailing venues are deado, normal tourism put off by the talk of traffic congestion and terrorism etc. So I don't see any temporary GDP boost-- much talked about prior to the event. Oh well, we all basically in the same boat so have that pirate ship able and ready, navigator remains on call.

Just point of interest for retro analysis, EU hit the 50% ret of the 5W move up but did not go on to make symmetry at 2170.
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