EUR

DaveO that depends on time frame, and on instruments, whether or not one can create profit on leading indicators. Yields reflect assessments on safety and in many cases these come later in EU USDx JPYx.
To trade that fx spot is not appropriate , standard options is better, but one can successfully trade DOW SPX with 10y 5 y absolutely and by their spreads as a leading signal.
For GBP crosses, short sterling is also a nice leading indicator.

keep in mind, Q3 2012 is the toughest period of china(from offiicials). 2013 March-May should have some good sign(not from officials).

also, FT said lower rate in sep or further easing may affact china banks yield.

yes China PMI decreased for the third time in a row.
An old friend of mine from university days who is married to a Chinese woman visits mainland China twice a year recently told me the yards of luxury car dealers such as mercedes and BMW are full to the brim with unsold cars, and a heavy discount battle is going on. Only SUVs and sports cars still sell at list price. I have already months ago shorted BMW and Mercedes the put options are so far 50% up.
I believe in China hard - if not very hard - landing.

cat, I keep very close eye on bonds/yields, also italian and spanish yields inverse to EU correlation. I find mostly a lag before currency reactions. Can you give any specific guidance on lags ?

ah, betting on china pmi. ;)