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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 19, 2009 21:57
Comments: 315
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Oil Weakness May Intensify

Oil sluggishness may risk turning into a faster selloff, especially as the fuel fails to gain on recent USD losses.
 
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GTNew
Arizona, United States
Posts: 33
14 years ago
Nov 28, 2009 2:03
Ashraf,
Crude Oil - You were calling for Oil to test the 73 handle which we did today. Do you think that will be the low or do you forecast a further decline to a lower level?
kidwai
karachi, Pakistan
Posts: 77
14 years ago
Nov 27, 2009 18:53
Hi to everyone, A VERY EID MUBBARAK TO EVERY ONE.
Thanks
Usman
Lahore, Pakistan
Posts: 3
14 years ago
Nov 27, 2009 17:38
Mr. Laidi,

Excellent analysis! I must also point here that we generally tend to downplay the importance of historical trends. In the last 14 out of 18 years, crude has declined during the period Oct-Dec.

I failed to capitalize on the downtrend however fully capitalized on the retracement just exiting at 75.90

Usman
Hedgie
Scunthorpe, UK
Posts: 16
14 years ago
Nov 27, 2009 16:33
Asad will you be celebrating your win with a few bottles of Cristal tonight??
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Nov 27, 2009 15:29
Ashraf,

Thanks very much and Happy Eid to you & fellow members!

Ashraf, it's always encouraging when you take out the time to encourage - believe me it feels like a commendation. Remember last week I wrote here that I was doubting my analysis and YOUR IMT gave me the confidence to open/stay short? This trade initiated there. ;)

On another note, I am CONVINCED - rankings aside - that no one on this planet can better you in Yen. I keep comparing the your calls w/ the market (correction, the market w/ your call) and wonder if you're manipulating the Yen! Every week your say 'Yen strong at w/end'...and we say 'Yes Sir'...and so it happens!

Thanks again and don't forget to spend graciously in God's way... :)


Asad


P.S. Oil, I suspect will recover to the 76 level s/time next week. I'll open another short position around that.
TG
Singapore
Posts: 112
14 years ago
Nov 27, 2009 14:34
Asad, well done, that is one cool trade... rake it in.... :)
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Nov 27, 2009 13:37
Asad, CONGRATS ! Oil gave you an awesome Eid Present today. $72.39 is the low. I cant wait to see how DUG will fare today. DUG is the INVERSE OIL ETF

Ashraf
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Nov 27, 2009 13:04
NZ,

Indeed, I've been busy cashing in! :) I closed all positions at 73.30 (and collected just a shade above 300 pips). That brings my total to ~500 pips within the week. Not bad when any- and everyone around you is bullish on oil.

While I agree that today's haul wasn't a result of the fundamentals...I'm not complaining. :p Look for oil to add around a $-and-a-half when the markets settle...before eventually retreating.

I had actually put wild stop at 71.80 (& would you believe it went up again from 72.20s *ahhh*) but decided to close the positions because I'd NEVER let greed take the better of me! Discipline is a trader's best friend...


Asad
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
Nov 27, 2009 10:32
Ashraf thank you for your IMT's useful and profitable as always...one must never get married to a position...price is king for me, and a break of 75.3 was ideal entry point, and target of 73 got hit around 8.10am today. Though surely the unwinding in the markets is being exacerbated by the thin thanksgiving vols as Dubai is too small a financial player to cause a real market turnaround
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Nov 27, 2009 8:21
where's Asad ? he must be laughing all the way to the bank !
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