Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

$AUDUSD chart: Techs Calling Top; Funds Expect Reversal:

-http://www.tradingview.com/v/4UcZX6Ix/

Cheers,

David Alcindor

Hello Pie,

I am not one to ask about fundamentally-driven price action. My analyses are purely technical instrument-based.

However, BOC is expected to increase its current 1.0% rate up to 1.75% in Q3 2015, ahead of the US Fed by one quarter, as some expect Fed rate to increase in Q4 2015.

In my chart, a surprise rate hike would help further push the USDCAD down to complete a probable Wolfe Waves (see chart's link below), whose price action anticipate a 1-4 Target Line validation to complete the entire advanced pattern.

USDCAD/H4: Wolve Waves Unfolds From 5-Prime:
-https://www.tradingview.com/v/9yKIPQGn/

For the time being, I am expecting an interim rally up to the underbelly of the 2-4 Line. If this overhead resistance is met and resists, then the bearish target should remain a probable event.

If the 2-4 line fails, then I would expect a significant rallying into and above the pattern itself - I hope this is not too abstract.

Cheers,

David Alcindor

AUDUSD/H4: Did A Wolfe Waves Complete?


In addition to a potential KoD pattern completion in the hourly chart, a wider contemplation of the price field brings to sight a potential Wolfe Waves pattern:


Chart: AUDUSD/H4 - Bearish Wolfe Waves ("WW") At 5':
-https://www.tradingview.com/x/9ta459fc/

As the pattern indicates, price has reached above the 1-3-5 Line to define a 3-5' Line typical of a WW extension. But whether price declines from that height and start carving out new structural lows has yet to be demonstrated. For new it's too unclear.

In fact, price has not been as distinct has it did in this Loonie Wolfe Waves pattern, where I called for a top and reversal at a similar 5-prime level:


USDCAD/H4 - Wolfe Waves Reverses At 5-Prime:
-https://www.tradingview.com/v/9yKIPQGn/


Correlations I have followed are Gold and US Dollar index.

In Gold, a bearish market reversal has printed on April 24th. However, a relief rally is underway and could reverse that trend just as well. A conditional market reversal has to the upside remains absent for now, and a structure @ 1320.40 is kept in sight to signal a potential strengthening of the bulls against my bearish bias.

As far as USDollar index direction goes, my system has produced a two back-to-back bullish, then bearish confirmation, until recently where an early bullish signal has been produced. Looking at the price action, 10495 has remained unchallenged. In fact, the recent price rallying reversed at the 0.886-Fib, which often marks the starts of a significant rally, as often seen in the emergence of Point-3 in Elliott Waves, albeit it is a bit premature, and my system remains "on the fence".


OVERALL:

AUDUSD has yet to show bearish intentions. There are a lot of indirect signs, patterns and indications that it may have reached a high, but there is nothing distinct. My directional bias is neutral to bearish, whereas that of my system remains bullish.

Development of patterns and correlated conditions defined above are yet to signal a true intention to reverse to the downside.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView.com moderator

aud and nzd are hedge funds bets

usdcad wait 1.07 to buy again