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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558

Forum Topic:

JPY

Discuss JPY

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Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

14 years ago

Sep 15, 2010 19:36

Catnip, exactly, why would anyone date buy yen ahead of MoF warning for tonight. They will wait for Philly Fed survey on Thursda, which has a strong track record in tracking ISM & overall economy. If say the index remains below zero (previous figure was (-7.7), then traders will begin fretting about QE2 announcements from FOMC next week.

Now, if Philly Fed is disappointing and FOMC does NOT announce QE 2 next wek, then markets may force the Fed's hand by selling off, sending bond yields higher. Thats almost exactly what happened at the famous December 2007 FOMC meeting when the Fed did NOT cut rates, only to follow up later in afew days later with a rate cut.

Ashraf

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Sep 15, 2010 18:37

@ catnip. I also have serious doubts as to whether the FED will do a full QE2 a la GS. It seems to me that the FED have indeed made their gauges clear. Interesting interview on BBC radio with a U.S. prof. (cople of weeks ago) saying that the mood in the Fed and White House is now much more that they just have to be patient with the steps that they have already taken. Geithner stated today that they do not have bottomless pockets. GS rumour-milling again maybe ...

catnip

Frankfurt, Germany

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Sep 15, 2010 18:31

No one dares to trade JPY

Carlco

bristol, UK

Posts: 151

14 years ago

Sep 15, 2010 18:09

ashraf, thanks for the video analysis, also we have quadruple witching hour approaching this friday, the indexes' have been incredibly quiet in tight ranges this week (so far) do you think the Japanese announcement was a timed to coincide with this? also what is your analysis of witching hour ?
i remember a few years ago that after option traders got in short the month before, the markets got held up till the friday, before heading a lot lower after friday's expiries, im not saying the index's are heading lower after expiry, it's just unusual to see the markets so undecided in direction. just wonder what your view on this might be. (also is there any credance tol ECB data and US CPI m/m on friday)

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

14 years ago

Sep 15, 2010 18:02

Ny BNN interview on Yen intervention, with Jim Baccardax
http://bit.ly/amC1qy

Ashraf

catnip

Frankfurt, Germany

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Sep 15, 2010 17:55

If everyone factors in QE as rumored by GS then it will NOT happen.
I think that Bernanke's gauges for further action are clear and neither indicates easing.
Further imo no one has put China into such considerations. What does lowering yield of long term USTs mean for China with respect to its UST portfolio?

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Sep 15, 2010 17:24

I agree @ djellal. Rarely smart to do too much when BOJ has put the cat among the pigeons - everything flying everywhere ... Need to let things settle down. Remember too that if FED announce further loosening next week then much of the impact is factored in thanks too GS and CS. Expectation of USD1 trillion leaves room for disappointment as GS et al, throw their rattles out of the pram and call for QE3 (would that be the Queen Mary ;-))

catnip

Frankfurt, Germany

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Sep 15, 2010 16:10

PIMCO warns of a "surprise effect" says JPY weakness won't last.

djellal

LAUSANNE, Switzerland

Posts: 531

14 years ago

Sep 15, 2010 15:33

wait next Week before being long YEN... i think