Forum > View Topic (Hot-Chart)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 4, 2010 14:02
Comments: 347
View Hot-Chart
This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:

What's Next for Aussie?

 
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Callum
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 179
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2011 7:21
Chloe, I am looking at similar scenarios of AUDUSD breaking above all-time high assuming 50:50 probability on NFP, wit the bullish scenario as follows:
1. SPX pushing higher and maintains above 1300. Test 1320?
2. Gold moving towards 1400 (and other commodity plays**)
3. Shanghai Composite floating higher.

AUD for now doesn't seem to be just a USD dollar story. It's back above key daily moving averages above the likes of the strong SGD. (I use SGD as benchmark against other Australasian ccy)

**While Ben B doesn't want to be blamed for higher commodity prices, commodity prices are continuing to push higher. I don't know if my correlations to commodities / gold to AUD is still valid ....
Callum
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 179
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2011 4:54
As for China rate hike, I struggle to see Chinese central bankers and govt officials taking time out of their travels and family gathering to release news that will dampen the spring festival sentiments over the next 5 days. We are already well past Chinese New Year... So probably time to go back to the drawing board and re-think timing for Chinese hikes.
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2011 2:53
looking @ the daily chart for the aud i see it trending higher an making higher lows with the pull backs getting weaker but having said that there is a nice triple top forming..but either way u look @ it aud is gettin ready to pull back.. if china don;t hike then i expect a move above the last high of 1.0250 with a new low not reachn below 99 on the dip but if they do get more aggressive with tightening then safe to say tripple top will play leading to more aggressive downside would be nice to see it fail to obtain a new high..hopefully im accurate with my post gl guys:)
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2011 2:05
One thing I noticed is that the 2010 GDP of Australia as stated by the IMF is $1.2T in nominal terms, and $0.88T in Purchasing Power parity terms. Relative to the US, Australians obviously have to pay more for the same services, goods etc..
So here is a question for any Australian.
Are wages in Australia growing faster than inflation at the moment? I would assume that imports would be cheaper with the strong aussie, so unless the labour market is tight and wages are going up, then not sure how the Aussie should remain strong. A country that comes to mind with a strong currency and ridiculously high prices is Switzerland, but then the incomes over there are really high...
sydneyjames
Sydney, Australia
Posts: 348
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2011 0:59
0.9880 does sounds nice ;)
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2011 0:06
@sydney..ya ive got shorts scattered around but 1.0140 is my best level..would be nice to see a nice gap down to 9880 level:) gl
sydneyjames
Australia
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 23:56
i am short at around 1.0100
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 23:10
srry i meant shorts to my aud position @1.0140:) gl
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 23:09
ive added to my existing shorts on the usd plus i added shorts on the gbp an finally added shorts on my eur only thing i wasn;t able to get was long usdcad had bids @9860 but never seemed to happen:( but all my more important trades hit:)gl
fxking
Melb, Australia
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 22:37
Who is still shorting the aussie ?
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