EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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Thank you for the insights..... it just amaze how the "markets" assesses.... so cool.......
on the NYSE the internals were as below
Up Volume 1160 m
Down volume 63 M
Advancers 2546
Decliners 495
New highs 213
New Lows 1
If you divide up volume by advancers you will get 0.45 M- i.e. on an average each advancing stock was traded for 0.45M in volume. If you divide down volume by decliners you get 0.12m only. Therefore advancing stocks were traded nearly 4 times more in volume than declining stocks - that is about as bullish as it gets.
Google ARMs Index (trin) and other internals like A/D breadth and line etc. to gauge internal strength of the market.
I beleive GBP will go to 1.7 - but that is the trickiest one to call as GBP has a number of times decoupled from the risk rallies.
imf contributed - maybe - but this all looks very cyclical. around the end of most months the big money sells off - books profit. in the first 10 days of the month - money comes back - takes it right up - then all the amateurs start to come in - by then it is coming towards the end of the month and the sell off starts again - and you start hearing on cnbc about gloom and doom. prices are driven down at the start of the new month as the spooked amateurs start selling - and the big boys buy it. its almost been cyclical since April - excluding the slightly longer correction in June.
the s&p chart shows it better - but on this forum i can't find it - EURUSD correlates pretty much with it.
volume on the broad based Russell 3000 has been identical over the last couple of days as has been at the start of every cyclical rally. all those jokers on TV talking of low volume need to realise - volume going down is mostly higher than volume going up as rally's build over more days than pull backs.
money is easy and cheap - they will probably come in with another stimulus to keep every one happy.
and as you can see oil seems to be stalled in the 70s which is good and will help the rally further, as oil rallies tend to spook quite some investors
But the dollar moved mainly because of the IMF this weekend. Furthermore stocks right now are being valued based on expected future inflation and the dollars role as a cheap borrowing currency. Therefore its all speculation and possibly a bubble which can easy reverse and catch most at surprise.
I dont think stocks can rally much without the fall of the dollar from here. But i sense a great deal of caution amongst the big boys. The short to medium direction of stocks will be mainly driven by the Fed and other central banks this time round which in turn will influence the dollar
EURUSD heading to 1.6
USDCAD to 1.03
GBP to 1.7
AUD to 0.94
NZD to 0.76
S&P to 1150
all in the next 2 weeks
may not mean an awful lot as citi tend to make losses on wagers that get published on bloomberg.