GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart

yes 1.60 very possible. the reversal was bcos market was too short of cable before speculation

the fed will care where s & P is thats why they wanted to do qe and bring down rates because they didnt want a 1929 depression with ever decreasing stocks. their next objective would be to bring some faith to the dollar so that they remain desirable currency and dominate the world.

50yen haha what a joke. certainly want to move the yen up it seems. the faster stocks move the fasted fed is likely to raise rates and cause a dollar rally. we are not too far from this happening. Q1 2010 the latest. but as with any asset, once it becomes cheap, it becomes purchased just like the dollar will. therefore the position of the dollar now is very much like interest rates are. only one way to go.

Radu

Interesting article.

I normally don't take into account very long term and extreme predictions. They are easy to make and as time passes their relevance erodes as the game has changed.
Extreme events like yen at 50 - even if it is true will happen slowly and one will get enough opportunities to take advantage of that. But how do I position myself for trading it when my trading horizon is no more than a week or 2 ?
Even if the Yen ends at 50 (very unlikely in my lifetime) , I doubt the Japs will go down without a fight. And don't forget once the S&P crosses 1200 - the Fed will likely increase interest rates. USD strength may be just round the corner, but I can't time it perfectly - we will get enough indications that the tide is changing to take advantage.

Hi Vik ,


I read this days - i do not remember when - some cental banks - China perhaps-change (don"t know how much )usd with yen in their reserves .
Could be this - on jpy - but my filling is today was a whipsaw sett by some big players - remember how sharp goes down gbp/jpy .

Regards