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Fed's Quantitative Easing Extends Seasonal Reversals
As the Fed's quantitative easing policy reaches a new landmark, markets are set to make their seasonal reversal, typical of the last 5-6 weeks of the calendar year.
Looks like the seasonal reversal theory ran out of steam this week and maybe cable won't reach $1.60. This week's candle is quite bearish suggesting further downside next week to as low as $1.41 next week but I don't think we will see $1.37 this year. Instead, we could see a fresh run-up towards $1.57-1.59.
Ashraf
Firstly welcome to UK!
Secondly do you still see seasonal reversals for cable in line with your article 'Beware of Seasonal Forex Reversals' on 19 Nov...it seems to be trending the other way? All the reading in the past indicated a big uptrend to 1.60.. now with the rate cut where to you see the bounce back upto. Do you still think cable will bounce back before trending down to multidecade support at 1.37?
Thanks and best wished
MAK
Gold seen retesting the $835 highs a break of which can call up $920. Im not too sure about oil but if the reversal thesis holds then we may see $63 per barrel, depending on OPEC. there are two meetings coming up...Cairo and Algiers.
Ashraf
sorry for disturbing
but plz what do u think about GOLD and oil prices for the next couple of weeks
regards
Steve, bear in mind USDCAD is inversely proportional to shifts in risk appetite. OPEC isnt likely to cut production this weekend but may agree over a a cut later this month. 1.2580s should act as a firm resistance into next 3-4 weeks as long as stocks do not sustan fresh damage before year-end. We may have to retest 1.21 and go all the way to 1.19.
Ashraf
Happy holidays.
This usd/cad is tricky. What is your outlook of usd/cad short term (in dec)? Tks.
I am a beginner in forex matters and have recently been regularly visiting your website which is excellent and unbiasedlly informative. Thank you.
Given that USD will weaken in the near term (till early 09) per your comments in CNBC, does it make sense to switch JPY to CAD (77.25) now and then back to USD in Jan09 ? What do you suggest ?
Regards,
vy
GBPUSD will NOT have to drop to as low as $1.45 before attaining the targets I mentioned before. The seasonal reversal is clearly underway. Technicas in cable show the currency pair to have recovered from the bearish psychology... for now
There are TWO GOOD REASOS why USDCHF could go down: 1) seasonal reversal weighing on USD; 2) Geopolitical risk is GRADUALLY imposing its trace on the markets. 1.1930 very possible by day's end.
the usdchf has risen from 1.1820 to 1.2080 in 2 hours, so will it be up 1.2200 again or it is a good time to sell the currency usdchf?what is the reason? thanks!