EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
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What you wrote about the USD index may already be happening, perhaps sooner even than you expected. I suppose today's massive spike in the index (at least on my chart) was a rather exaggerated response to news/data, and it has already settled down again, but is still around the territory you mention.
Interesting times.
Regards,
Montmorency
This is my favourite website thanks to you and everyone who posts on the site - it's been quite an education thus far and I eagerly await your book which I have ordered.
If JackDee is correct about a USD shorts unwinding in 2 weeks, how low could AUDUSD and NZDUSD go? I'm looking for an entrypoint to go long aussie and/or kiwi as they appear toppish to me at current levels.
Thanks,
mnat
Said, RBA rate hike could push up AUDUSD and maybe lift euro indirectly but it would NOT lift it all the way to 1.50. there would have to be otrher factors. Why do you say RBA hike sends dow to that level. I do not understand your point here. there is no such relation.
JackDee, thanks for taking the time to make such well thought out points.
Ashraf
There is a HIGH probability that in two weeks or less, the US Dollar index could breach the 76.98 level. Should that occur, many USD shorts will unwind. That usually means the carry trades using the US dollars will have to cover themselves. CADUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, etc. This could also mean the EURUSD but one would get more bang per trade going against the highest interest rate currencies.
The USDJPY would likely go up BUT that is not a given since Yen can also appreciate when risk aversion dominates. So why go for an iffy thing when you can select trades with better chance.
IF USDJPY does go up, that would mean that Yen crosses will not do as well as dollar ones. That is, shorting CADUSD will give you more pips than shorting CADJPY.
When shorts unwind in a BIG way, it tends to be a "short" duration. There will be massive pip movements, so don't be greedy and take your profit quickly.
This is a swing trade scenario to be played out at most a few weeks. Long term GBP can stabilize, EUR can appreciate, and AUD will be at bargain prices. Good luck to all!
-Jack Dee
when u say go long usd except usdyen do u mean yen will be one moretime the carry trade currency.
what if a rate hike occur in rba and send the dollar euro above the 1.50 level. i am hearing a lot of managers telling that it can reach its all time high.
ashraf,
does the possible rate hike in australia send the dow jones at the retracement level of 50 percent or the level of 10200 reached the last weeks is the culminated point
Ashraf
Last time the rate was hiked AUD/USD didn't quit as you know. But with expectations the way they are, I hear you loud and clear.
Going to play it safe now with going long on your EUR/CHF call -- tough to go wrong with the SNB on "your' side!!!
This is be a KEY week. Focus your attention on the US Dollar Index especially the key resistance 76.98. Break of this resistance will cause MASSIVE short covering. Aggressively go LONG USD except for USDJPY.
-Jack