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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Oct 22, 2009 18:16
Comments: 54
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Parameters in Equities, Oil

The 100-week moving averages in the S&P500 and US crude oil will act as the next resistance for risk appetite and USD-selling.
 
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 27, 2009 22:12
do some research on elliot wave u will find out it is one of the best.
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Oct 27, 2009 21:18
Spec,
Even Prechter has same view on Dollar index and equities. Even if we dont take Elliot wave as reference, the positive Divergence can be seen clearly on Dollar Index daily chart(with MACD or even with Stoch). Personally I have short positions in DOW fut,crude and in oil, so this may be the reason for my tilt towards bear camp.

and as far Elliot wave is concern, its bit of a underestimation if one say that Elliot can be defined only after occurrence. Fibbo and wave can even be used for initiating a position and believe me, it works.
rajib.
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
15 years ago
Oct 27, 2009 20:46
I don't think we are entering a risk aversion mode yet. there have been a number of mini dollar rallies in the last 6 months - nothing major. the bull structure remains intact.

Nov and Dec have been weaker months in 2007 and 2008 in a bear market - 2005 and 2006 they were higher - as we were in a bull run.

Not really a fan of Elliot wave theory - too many experts have totally different opinions on where we are in the wave structure, which mostly becomes clear once it has occurred, practical application to trade profitably appears to be limited.

I think whoever can predict and take positions for when this inverse relationship between dollar and equities will end will make some good money.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 27, 2009 19:27
we are probably entering risk aversion mode towards year end which could imply:
lower gold
lower oil
lower stocks
higher dollar (index)

Elliot Wave Theory confirms perfect retracement levels for the dollar which means the dollar is set to soar in the coming quarters. as the dollar seems to correlate well with risk on an inverse basis

WATCH OUT
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 16:58
hmmalik, YES. pls follow my IMts, my articles and my calls on twitter twitter/alaidi.com

Dave, thanks.


Ashraf
dave
dublin, Ireland
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 12:37
Hi Ashraf,

Firstly can I thank you for the seminar you held in Dublin mid-sept which I found both hugely insightful and massively worrying as I realised how much i dont know about the financial markets! I'm less than six months into the trading business and I'm just trying to keep my expectations in check, be patient and keep improving.

Secondly, I would like to give my 2 cents on oil/dollar.
I am fearful that oil prices will not hold the $80 level for the rest of the year. I still think at a global level economic growth and activity will be weak at best and the rally in oil is less to do with appetite and more to do with traders selling the dollar before they have their morning coffee! I am very possibly wrong but I just want to start forming my own opinions and not being over reliant on backward looking news. I will keep an eye out to see if this is the case weither way.

Anyway Ashraf, thanks again
dave
hmmalik
Toronto, Canada
Posts: 9
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 10:57
ASHRAF

DO U THINK CRUDE WOULD TRADE BETWEEN 75 AND 82 RANGE
FOR NEXT ONE MONTH?

THANKS

REGARDS
hmmalik
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 25, 2009 16:36
taha, again watch out for the GBP rebound towards 1.6380s but i see more downside towards 1.6230s.

shak, yes. regardless of whether they intervene or not, EURCHF still a good buy at 1.5090s and thats why it rose towards 1.5130s. next target 1.5180s

Ashraf
shak
Melbourne, Australia
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 25, 2009 13:35
Ashraf, dont you think chf is reaching a point, where its more likely to be intervened by snb or atleast start jawboning.
hmmalik
Toronto, Canada
Posts: 9
15 years ago
Oct 25, 2009 8:12
pound will rebound 1.6470

sell at 1.6450

then open to cover

hmmalik