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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 3, 2010 17:02
Comments: 116
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

$1.32 Euro Under Construction

The deteriorating momentum of sovereign concerns in the Eurozone & further dissenting rhetoric from FOMC to weigh further on EUR & other risk currencies.
 
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 10:21
If California come under spotlight in terms of credit-rating or risk of default, what's would be the impact in the forex market? Maybe before California comes under spotlight, the spotlight might go to Japan, where their Debt-to-GDP ration is approx 200. USD still seems to be the anti-risk for all crisis, domestic or international, and thus I suspect will go up no matter what the risk event is. I like Ashraf's call on 132 for EUR/USD or lower. This is likely as the story moves from Greece to the next "crisis". Maybe experts in this forum could comment ... ???
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
15 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 7:58
And this was from Chuck a few days ago:

"Did a bit of research for you and .... Calif's economy is about $1.6 Trillion (as of Jan 2007), according to US Dept of Commerce. US economy, according to CIA fact book, is about $14.25 trillion on 2009 estimates.
Thus, Calif is about 11% of the US economy - roughly speaking, given that the dates are slightly mismatched, and who knows how accurate these Gov't organizations are.
But any event, it's clearly much bigger than Greece's impact on the EU."

So... California, which I would consider to be bankrupt, I mean for crying out loud, the state sent IOU's to people last year instead of cash for their tax returns, is 11% of the U.S. problem... But we have to add to that, the research we went through above... The states of New York, Michigan, Illinois, and so on! This is a debt debacle folks!

Now... I'm not saying that the PIGS problem isn't a big deal... It is! But bigger than the U.S. problem? NO!

So... The dollar should not be rewarded... And neither should the euro... But the problem here is that these are the two most liquid currencies in the world... So, the normal trade is the sell one, and buy the other, as they are the offset currencies to each other... So... I would think that you would take the lesser of two evils, don't you?"
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
15 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 7:56
I'm still amazed that everyone cries about Greece and no one ever looks at California, NY, Illinois, ... The PIGS are a joke compared to the size of the US states. But well, no rating agency would ever downgrade the AAA rating of the US I guess because this would be a real shake...
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 6:27
Goldman Sachs started bidding an hour ago and have added 30 pips to euro and aussie.
Callum
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 179
15 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 5:13
I haven't yet heard any news from China? I don't see it the economic calendar and not getting through anything on TV (although not expecting Bloomberg/CNBC to cover this). Is this what is driving the lows in the Asian session ? ie, ASX is now below the levels pre-Germany news yesterday despite great earnings / commodity story from BHP today, and it seems EUR/JPY and EUR/USD are off their highs and lows of yesterday in the Asian session, below 23.6% and 38% respectively. Just wondering whether the EU session is expected to be in heavy bid following Asia open or sharp decline.
PippedOff
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 9, 2010 21:20
Spec-what are your USDX targets for this pullback?
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 9, 2010 21:03
pipped off you should changed your bame to goldmanlover
PippedOff
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 9, 2010 20:58
I'm all aboard Ashraf - thank you
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Feb 9, 2010 20:43
EVERYONE asking about EUR i just updated the latest HOTCHART on EURUSD http://www.ashraflaidi.com/hot-chart/?a=1361

PIPPED OFF, we appreciate many of your comments but your 8-10 posts in past 10 minutes about Goldman Sachs cartel are becoming useless and of no value. I am all for Freedom of Expression and a luittle humour, but to refer every single post with Goldman Sachs is becoming childlish to say the least.

I will keep this forum sound and useful and will appreciate your help on this.


Ashraf
PippedOff
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 9, 2010 20:41
GOLDMAN Sachs DESPERATE to bid eur over 1.38 and aussie over0.88 by NY close