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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30727
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
subway90
Posts: 1078
10 years ago
Mar 19, 2011 6:44
Euro just pushed higher toward 4200/20 resistance...
now facing strong resistance level around 4190/4220 in two diffrent time frames...
expecting pullback after hitting 4200 level to first main support now at 4030/50 level...
if this level holds.... expect 1 more push to 4240/50 level b4 moving lower....
clear break below 4000 level suggest interim top in place for correction down back to 3800/3850 b4 moving higher to new highs above 4282....

gl/gt
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 20:29
Kam check out Oanda they have a ccy correlation heatmap...the 1 week and 1 month correlation according on this is 0.89 and 0.9 b/ween eurusd and eurgbp. Though looking at the long term chart the t/line has def been respected since dec 2009. I can see why you see good r/r on the short. I will look to hit this sun/mon if it gets closer to the t/line, with tight stops in case of a yen style barrier trade getting triggered and causing mayhem
Kam
london, UK
Posts: 31
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 20:03
agreed. but if you look at both the previous occasions when it reversed from trendline resistance, Euro was superstrong at upto the point where it met the weekly resistance. Also if you loook at correlation tables EURGBP and EURUSD are not consistently correlated. But most importantly this is a low risk, high reward setup which actually led me to enter short. I am next week's event risk will be just the catalyst to make this come good.

Kam
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 19:55
Kam that's what concerns me shorting eurgbp...the strength in eurusd could drag this pair kicking and screaming over the t/line.
Kam
london, UK
Posts: 31
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 19:45
Short here with stop above trendline resistance of 87.60. The weekly trendline resistance is not to be messed with. Each time it was hit on last 2 occasions it moved south over 600 pips. little concerned over high positive correlation between EURUSD and EURGBP, but still bearish on it, just. next week crucial though, BOE minutes and UK CPI.

Kam
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 19:29
Hey any of u guys on here flip EURGBP?? It's near it's weekly t/line from the dec 09 high...any views or plays going on??
New Pip
birmingham, UK
Posts: 84
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 17:50
For sure.
Ganja
United States
Posts: 278
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 17:40
email me and I will explain pahtah@yahoo.com over w/e

later..
New Pip
birmingham, UK
Posts: 84
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 17:38
Ganja

I've added the stocastics from previous conversation as well as the SMA. I know you've explained the sma signal a million times but I just don't get it or can't see it... a bit thick sometimes.

I'll figure it .cheers
Ganja
United States
Posts: 278
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 17:24
usd/chf short playin nice..
New Pips..lets say at this level higher percentage dip gretaer than at other levels

if on 1hr construct 144,169 smas tunnel and measure length of rate as it goes from middle of tunnel current 3940 approx.
in fibo number of pip move, say 34, 55, etc..now at 233 rom mid tunnel. normally a long ways away for euro...can measure possible retraces from this etc..but also put 21 sma and when that cnages direction by 2 pips or so then points direction...high %...

this 'old school' but I have watched this as old school would:)

add slow stochastics 5.3.3 and build screen time watchin..
gl...