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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
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Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
13 years ago
Mar 19, 2011 17:45
Subway what do u thinnk abt eurgbp pal?
subway90
Posts: 1078
13 years ago
Mar 19, 2011 17:22
chloe...

one more thing... i use 4/8 hour candles to verify if there is a reversal short term... whenever it hits the support/resistance lines... the 4/8 hour candle would most of the time give confirmation to go short or long.... if you wanna play safe... you won't get the best price... being a bit aggressive will give you good price but at times you could be in an awkward position... :)
subway90
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 19, 2011 17:17
chloe...

if you take a look at longer term charts.... you could draw lines thru support turned resistance and vice versa lines... from the main line you can chart several parallel lines that has almost equal distance from each of those lines... and amazingly all those lines at one point served as resistance or support lines... furthermore... i draw 2 diffrent lines with one slanting upwards and the other one slanting downwards... once it has broken above and settles above that resistance line... then that line would act as a support line... and vice versa.... if this forum had better charts.. it would have been nice...
one more thing... as cygnus has mentioned... i use GANN FAN on very long term chart... to indicate reversal or breakout... it clearly shows the next main target once there is a breakout.... very useful in determining long term trend a or if there is a possible reversal....

4120/30 level was a minor resistance and expected a minor correction from that level.. but it just blasted thru... but now 4200/20 would be a very strong resistance... and i'm expecting pullback to 3800/3850 from that level... b4 moving higher

now main support line runs thru 4030/50 level... once Euro settles below this level... it's a clear signal that bigger correction has started and expect dip back to 3800/3850 level...

gl/gt
cygnus
New York , United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 19, 2011 15:11
If there was a better charting tool on here subway could show you his lines.

There are many ways people identify potential support and resistance levels. The most obvious is looking back at levels where there was previous support and resistance you mentioned.

Then there is trend line support and resistance. Some also look at channels where there is an upper and lower trend line.

Some people also use pivot points that are based on a calculation using the open, high, low and close price over a prior time period.

Then there is fibonacci ratio levels.

I recall subway once mentioning that he uses a Gann fan type analysis to identify support and resistance.

You also have wave analysis as in Elliot Wave theory. This involves pattern recognition and fractals.
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posts: 1183
13 years ago
Mar 19, 2011 13:49
@subway...can i ask u how do reconize strong resistance @ certain levels..is it just a matter of looking back on previous candle stixs/price action @ that given level or is there more to it..??i tried using market depth but i find fx trading i cant get a big picture like in stocks ..any ways thats for the great post it really helps us newbies:)..gl:)
subway90
Posts: 1078
13 years ago
Mar 19, 2011 6:44
Euro just pushed higher toward 4200/20 resistance...
now facing strong resistance level around 4190/4220 in two diffrent time frames...
expecting pullback after hitting 4200 level to first main support now at 4030/50 level...
if this level holds.... expect 1 more push to 4240/50 level b4 moving lower....
clear break below 4000 level suggest interim top in place for correction down back to 3800/3850 b4 moving higher to new highs above 4282....

gl/gt
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
13 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 20:29
Kam check out Oanda they have a ccy correlation heatmap...the 1 week and 1 month correlation according on this is 0.89 and 0.9 b/ween eurusd and eurgbp. Though looking at the long term chart the t/line has def been respected since dec 2009. I can see why you see good r/r on the short. I will look to hit this sun/mon if it gets closer to the t/line, with tight stops in case of a yen style barrier trade getting triggered and causing mayhem
Kam
london, UK
Posts: 31
13 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 20:03
agreed. but if you look at both the previous occasions when it reversed from trendline resistance, Euro was superstrong at upto the point where it met the weekly resistance. Also if you loook at correlation tables EURGBP and EURUSD are not consistently correlated. But most importantly this is a low risk, high reward setup which actually led me to enter short. I am next week's event risk will be just the catalyst to make this come good.

Kam
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
13 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 19:55
Kam that's what concerns me shorting eurgbp...the strength in eurusd could drag this pair kicking and screaming over the t/line.
Kam
london, UK
Posts: 31
13 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 19:45
Short here with stop above trendline resistance of 87.60. The weekly trendline resistance is not to be messed with. Each time it was hit on last 2 occasions it moved south over 600 pips. little concerned over high positive correlation between EURUSD and EURGBP, but still bearish on it, just. next week crucial though, BOE minutes and UK CPI.

Kam
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