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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Sep 2, 2010 22:20
catnip that's not going to happen, not in 2011, not in 2012 and not in the next 5 years.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 2, 2010 20:56
said
I think Roubini's systemic thinking is way over the head of chartists e wavers and that like.
Agreed the idea of positive and negative feedback is the lowest entry to a systems theory
of the markets. The big advantage of system theory, the markets as a system, is that a system has an input signal and responds to it with an output signal in a ( under certain conditions) computable manner.
The difference to chart astrology which also predict the next price as the response to the previous is that it cannot work. Because EUR and USD are not independent variables, neither EUR nor USD have a value by itself. Rather the value of EUR and USD, resp. must be computed from all pairs of which EUR and USD resp. is a member. And then you are right in systems theory.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Sep 2, 2010 20:40
catnip
dont u think that we lose thecapacity to think oout of the box even some economist.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 2, 2010 19:33
I made repeatedly easy profit with a simple strategy: short gold at last hi intraday and sell
at exactly 8:00 next morning that is always the min for the day and the difference is 4 USD/ounce . That worked well with XAUAUD and I gonna try it today with XAUUSD, start the test with 100 ounces.
Hatem
Amman, Jordan
Posts: 7
14 years ago
Sep 2, 2010 19:32
Ashrah
what do you think of catnip ideas ,do you think his 2011 guess is happining??
ross
Hawaii, United States
Posts: 37
14 years ago
Sep 2, 2010 19:20
Wow bleak picture catnip! Unfortunately - you may be right :-(
When I hear all the pundits talking up commodities - especially gold - I figure we must be close to a top!

Thank you for the comment Ashraf - I did watch your BNN interview - that is why I asked the question - I thought you must have changed your view of the eurusd, but I just wanted to verify.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 2, 2010 17:46
Interesting remark Roubini: "A negative feedback loop between the real economy and the financial system could easily tip the economy into a formal double dip: The real economy reaches a near-stall speed and risky asset prices correct downward, leading to a negative wealth effect, a higher cost of capital and reduced business, consumer and investor confidence."

What the CBs attempt to create by fighting deflation is a positive feedback that means inflation,
an negative means deflation. Deflation cannot be avoided so we'll see commodities falling hard
gold falls , stock markets tank, the deflationary USD ( FED reduced outlook) will remain stable while the inflationary EUR will plunge. The downward will extend into a spiral as the debt problems of PIIGS will under this conditions explode so within soon we'll see a return below
parity and eventually EUR will disappear my guess already in 2011.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Sep 2, 2010 17:41
ross, the chances of a 1.17 are diminishing. See what i said in the BNN interview about USD. It's in my IMTs. Barring any headwinds from China and big mess from ireland, I'd expect 1.25 to hold up through rising support through $1.29. These are the fundamentals you must be aware of.

Ashraf
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 2, 2010 15:45
It is easy with fundamentals... USD is strong support by deflation EUR is capped by inflation
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Sep 2, 2010 15:32
If it would be that easy with fundamentals the Dollar would drop like a stone. ;)