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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:
JPY
Discuss JPY
YEN VIEW: Ashraf Laidi of Cityindex says "as long as global bond
yields remain near record lows, yield-seeking Japanese investors have
little choice but to keep funds at home, opting for low yields and to
reduce the foreign exchange risk." When these investors do "venture
abroad," they typically keep their FX risk unhedged, which tends to
weigh on the yen. The correlation between global govt bonds yields and
yen crosses (dollar-yen/US 10-yr Tsy yields in particular) has remained
positive (over 70%). Weak Japanese growth and the first trade deficit in
32 years has Japanese investors looking abroad. In January, net Japanese
foreign purchases of overseas bonds rose to Y2.7trn, "the highest level
since September and the third highest in 3 years," Laidi says. For new
outflows to be seen, two technical levels will need to break. Dollar-yen
will need to vault its 50-week moving average at Y78.75 and 10-yr US Tsy
yields will need to breakout out of a 1.8%-2.2% consolidation range and
test its own 50-week moving average at 2.50%, he says.