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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:

Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
 
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Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 28, 2011 7:31
Interesting article by CIBC london head FX strategy.. "Reality check on CAD and AUD assumptions" ... got it via google cache. http://bit.ly/mcP3oQ
Nor
Lemberg, Canada
Posts: 249
13 years ago
Apr 28, 2011 5:01
Rezz, aussie can go as high as 1.145-1.15
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 28, 2011 4:25
Yes maybe the market wants to touch 1.10 if it makes it feel better! The fundamentals dont justify aussie being now some 40% overvalued on ppp terms (according to bloomberg), more than any other currency. At some point it will hurt the balance of trade, and cause non-resource industries to lack competitiveness if they already aren't. I find it ironic that aussie politicians find it amusing and possibly relish the strength in the aussie, and they havent jawboned yet.
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
Apr 28, 2011 2:46
aussie wants 1.10!.. final hurrah?..
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
Apr 27, 2011 5:49
I rather short kiwi @ 81.. there is not even good news to speak of there!..
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 27, 2011 2:47
Good time to short AUDUSD @ 1.0840 tp 1.0550. Every conceivable good news is being priced it at this moment, unless the market wants to reprice any little positive a few times over! With the CAD this hasnt happened even with stronger than expected CPI, so its indicating that speculation is at extremes in AUD!
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
Apr 26, 2011 0:17
aussie looks topsy turvy to me.. perhaps double top is playing out?..
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posts: 1183
13 years ago
Apr 21, 2011 13:13
$cad has broken out from its current downtrend chanel(1hour) & held 9450 now tryn to recover but up next is retail data and could push it back into the chanel for further downside..crude up+risk on-goldup-too many factors to keep it from rising..still sitting out:)..looks like that great call on the gbp$ never happened lol..best to sit out:) gl/gt:)...edmatts did say that final leg dwn would be 9450 b4 major reversal..im not too sure but i;ll long if 9500 is regained s/l9490..ok gl
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Apr 21, 2011 11:43
jacek, for ZB (30yrbonds) we had a low at 116'26 on the 9th Feb. From there nice 3 wave corrective up to make exact 100% sym at 123'22. I shorted at 121'20 and watched a rather passive 5 wave move down to 117'28 where I took half off at 118'20. Since then the expected correction back up has gone rather higher than I would like. My remaining stop now at b/e.

10yr yields made the exact same inverted pattern with the low made at 127.2% sym ext c.3.16.

I trade bonds only when I see a real nice set-up, well that applies to pretty much everything. I monitor c.68 vehicles (symbols) looking for decent set-ups.
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
Apr 21, 2011 1:43
Dave what's your take on 30yrBonds?.. do you trade curves?.. I use bonds for yen a little bit.. anyway if cad gives up 95 here I am out.. I'm long in other com FX though so might have rebalance again..
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