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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3117
Forum Topic:

Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Apr 15, 2011 21:12
If there is one thing I end up doing is trying to fade rallies that hit big figures or semi big figures first time. I know that is a lousy habit or strategy but it has worked for me so far with 3 trades with the Euro at 1.4000 and twice with the AUD at 1.0500. So I will go with it until my luck runs out with that "strategy", if one can call it that.

So I have gone selling 2 lots of the NZD at 0.7990. I will get stopped out for one at 0.8046 and the other at 0.8140 and if not I hope to tp for one at 0.7950 and the other at 0.7830.

All I am doing is just looking out for big figures being hit first time in any counter almost blindly and placing my stops 50/140 pips away.
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Apr 15, 2011 15:57
New Pip, yeah NU been relentless move up. I have exited and re-entered 4 times during the rally. I think there is a very real probability of a reaction at the previous high which it is kissing now. Best way to trade a reaction is to wait for the first ret on smaller timeframe and find an entry set-up below the current daily bar low. No point in an outright fade of the trend as it may not respect the previous high. gl gt.
New Pip
birmingham, UK
Posts: 84
11 years ago
Apr 15, 2011 11:34

Has anyone looked at NZD/USD on a daily chart. It has had a strong rally up for almost a week. It is nearing the highs at 0.7980 levels. I am considering to short this, but not sure how the fundamentals would affect it.

Any suggestions....

Sir, DaveO, Gunjack, Chloe keep the banter going along with the trade ideas. it livens up the forum. For those peeps who are complaining - look at it this way. If the guys weren't posting, then there wouldn't be much posts for a very long time.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Apr 14, 2011 23:44

Chinese GDP, CPI, industrial production and retail sales for March will be released at 02:00 GMT but we warn that these figures often trickle out ahead of the scheduled time.

Media in Hong Kong said CPI will be between 5.3% and 5.4%, which is above the 5.2% consensus and 4.9% prior. It also suggests CHINA MAY HAVE MORE WORK TO DO THAN the 1-2 rate hikes priced in something that should weigh on CAD, AUD and NZD. Traders have been reluctant to act, until the rest of the figures are released.

Retail sales (exp: +16.3%) and IP (exp: +14.0%) are important but will be overshadowed by GDP (exp: 9.3%). Given the strong import and export trade data earlier this week, we strongly suspect the market is pricing a higher figure than the consensus.

Dont expect to see a lasting AUD rally even on a figure around 9.5%. Something close to 9.7%, however, would easily spark the 40 pip rally to drive AUD/USD to a fresh all-time high. At 0430 Japan also releases IP (exp: +0.4% m/m) but any misses will be blamed on the earthquake.

By AB - Staff

halifax, Canada
Posts: 1183
11 years ago
Apr 14, 2011 20:25
what is the $cad saying on the hourly???possib triple top or higher going long @ support seems to hold @96 an the previous price action shows strong bids step in @ 96level..ok gl:)
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Apr 14, 2011 2:09
3.5% inflation expectation for Australia, slightly lower than last month. Got a quick bounce of ~10pips but trend was down.. likely will get longs squeezed now. Shorting at 1.0470, target 1.0420.
surrey, Canada
Posts: 69
11 years ago
Apr 13, 2011 20:34
subway90... thanks for your time
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Apr 13, 2011 20:30

for CAD...downtrend still in effect....

short term...

as long as 9570/80 holds.... see it testing 9680/90 resistance.... clear break above 9690 could see further gains toward 9800 level....

below 9570... see it moving lower to 9480/9500 support...

for AUD...

weekly still positive so could see test above 1.0582 high.... but upside will likely be limited...
immediate support at 1.0428... break below that level could see test of 1.0300 level....

surrey, Canada
Posts: 69
11 years ago
Apr 13, 2011 20:26
Thanks chloe, it seems like getting ready to go back towards parity.
halifax, Canada
Posts: 1183
11 years ago
Apr 13, 2011 20:22
fast pip i know ur asking subz but i like $cad as a leading indicator but for the last 3mths its been a watchn it but not willing to invest into the latest rally ..its burned me over the last few mth:(,..but i did notice today it moved strongly..whileusd was stronger vs other pairs so it might actually starting to regain the leading indicator title:)