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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3117
Forum Topic:

Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
 
fastpips
Canada
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Apr 13, 2011 19:33
Subway90, what do think about aud usd and usd cad. Thanks
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posts: 1183
11 years ago
Apr 13, 2011 15:49
$cad breaking out of resis @9630..looking to take out yesterdays highs possib 9655..i sold positions yesterday @ 9648...but hesitated on gettn back once 9600 failed to hold:(..ohh well im sure were not done with the 9600 level..plus observing price action instead of fully commiting to trades:) gl/gt:)
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Apr 13, 2011 12:31
USDCAD respected the 4-week trendline resistance of 09630s, now pulling back down towards 1-week support at 0.9570, a break (close) below which seen extending towards 0.9540s.


BANK OF CANADA POLICY REPORT (14:30 GMT) should offer more clarity for its near-term bias. Traders saw little indication the BOC is on the verge of resuming its policy tightening, with key language on stimulus reduction to be "carefully considered" restated verbatim along with more apparent indication of discomfort directed at the strong CAD.

By GG - AshrafLaidi.com Staff


Ashraf
Rezz
Canada
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 23:07
EURAUD did hold support at 1.3610 area and broke above 1.38 resistance area, now at 1.3865, probably targeting higher? Thats why I stayed away from trying to find a top in EURUSD, and stayed with AUDUSD short.. AUDUSD still looks like it may break further to downside with risk coming off.

But time for caution.. JP Morgan will announce results tomorrow morning which could lift markets for the day (Risk positive, USD negative?), but countering that Obama is supposed to talk about a deficit reduction plan which could impact markets too, and be dollar positive for a change?
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
11 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 11:29
Cat0 are you against the carry trade? with your short kiwi
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 11:28
30% Prob of BoC Rate Hike. Euro Pulls Back for 2nd Day.

BANK OF CANADA RATE DECISION marks the key economic event of the early New York session. Last time, the BoC upgraded its assessment of domestic economy from "recovery proceeding broadly as anticipated" to "proceeding slightly faster than anticipated." Canadian central bank was more upbeat on consumption and business investment, but also attributed headwinds in the export sector to the strength of CAD. Even though the prior Conservative ruling party appears to have regained control headed into the national elections, political turmoil and budget uncertainty are likely to keep BOC at 1.00%.

DESPITE A HEFTY 30% CHANCE OF A 25b-HIKE priced in the OIS market, a rate hike would indeed be surprising at this juncture. If Canadian central bank is truly concerned about the strength of CAD relative to USD, it would be wise to wait on the late-April FOMC decision to get some more clarity on the future of QE2 - recall that there is no Fed meeting in May. BOC last assessment on inflation was also rather lukewarm, suggesting expectations moved up but remain concentrated within the target control range. USDCAD spike topped out at the 4-week trendline resistance of 09620s. In the event that risk aversion deepens alongside the an unchanged decision may likely lift towards 09690s. In the unlikely event of rate hike, USDCAD seen at 0.9490s, but we could see broader CAD strength vs EUR & AUD.

By GG of AshrafLaidi.com


Ashraf
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 11:24
short NZDUSD @785 sl 791
Rezz
Canada
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 5:45
1.0420 doest look like a strong support for AUDUSD contrary to the earlier IMT today... May see sell-off accelerate in days ahead, especially after IMF downgrades of growth.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Apr 8, 2011 7:26
CANADA EMPLOYMENT REPORT for March is due out at around midday UK time and the unemployment rate is expected to slip back to 7.7% from last months 7.8% with a net change of 27.8k, a slight increase of last months 15.1k.

CAD still rides on the back of higher oil despite USDCAD aiming to find support at 0.9570. Yet, we remain well above the all-time lows of 0.9060 from 4 yrs ago. Fresh 30-month highs for both US crude & Brent, while silver hits the $40 mark, and gold holds above $1,460. USDX HITS 16-mnth lows, nearing 75.00 as the US budget saga & looming gvt shutdown weighs on the currency.

By KM - AshrafLaidi.com Staff.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 23:24
By AB - AshrafLaidi.com Staff

AUD/USD price action since the employment report has been treacherous. The pair initially rallied 50 pips to 1.0480 but quickly gave up half the gains. Early in North American trading the pair pushed to a record 1.0507 but quickly retreated back to 1.0411 then edged up to 1.0470. Medium and long term signals are pointing to further gains but whippy trading around a news event like the jobs report often signals a short-term top.

THE COMMODITY RALLY continues with gold and oil hitting fresh highs on Thursday. The Middle East remains a key driver of resources but other sources of recent strength include: 1) the spiraling costs of rebuilding in Japan 2) Continued easy money from the Fed 3) renewed signs of growth in emerging markets, especially China. The street is growing more bullish on China on hopes it can bring inflation under control and speculation that it is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. These calls may be premature but a soft landing in China is the most compelling reason to buy commodities, CAD and AUD.


Ashraf