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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:

Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
 
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DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Mar 27, 2011 21:58
@Machiavelli, yep I agree but let's not discourage those who need encouragement. I have found the list pretty good and stood the test of time so to speak, i.e nothing much changes in this respect. There is no timescale attached to it as everyone is different. Took me 5 yrs to reach a consistent b/e, first major goal to achieve imo. 9 years further on and I look back at how true the list is proven. The most valuable thing about this list is to show traders who may be struggling that they are not alone, far form it, and it does provide some kinda map for what to realistically expect !
Ganja
, United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 27, 2011 20:06
cat..always good scalps available..
gl
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Mar 27, 2011 18:56
No need to find anything. I or rather the system works with strength differences. But I get out with 20 pips. Know what really happened when USDJPY fell from 81 to 76 in a couple of minutes?
Yes that was liquidity crunch. It will happen again. I happened to be on the short but that was pure chance. Next time I may be on the wrong side when crunch hits the fan.
Ganja
United States
Posts: 278
13 years ago
Mar 27, 2011 13:47
You still tryin to find your level in fx, cat?
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Mar 27, 2011 13:07
Consistency means also 3 years of losses in a row. It is a proof that the market model is wrong.
As for now, as CBs after the japan earthquake have provided 1 trn (!!) of liquidity, every market model that had 50% hit rate in the past, will continue to have 50% hit rate. But models with hit rate of 60% ( or 66%, the exact theoretical maximum of chart astrology) will now drop below 50%.
The only way to trade is now high frequency pip hunting. Do not expect an average hit rate of more than51%.
Machiavelli
Posts: 113
13 years ago
Mar 27, 2011 10:59
Dave, one thing I always missed from that list (and it's certainly not a new one - I remember this list when I started out over a decade ago) is that people always believe that they're at least 12 steps ahead to where they actually are. Most people I talk to believe that they're around '33' when in fact they're closer to '12'. Bottom line: consistency means a minimum of 3 profitable years in a row. Anything less than that can be a fluke and only old war-horses realize how difficult it really is to survive, let alone be 'consistently profitable'.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 26, 2011 22:01
@Chloe. I'm afraid that #13 tends to repeat as you may have noticed :-) We are up against ourselves (human nature). The challenge is to target complete control of our stupid left brain which would have us stay on the pendulum. Then trading reverts across to right brain. There are many psychological similarities in the challenges that top sportsmen face. They only reach the top echelons by complete control of themselves. May sound like psycho mumbo but tis true.

@Adamcpf, Best to you and I hope you achieve your goals.
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posts: 1183
13 years ago
Mar 26, 2011 1:17
lol well said daveo after looking @ ur list i think im around 13-20 lol...mayb higher..finally im out from under the recent presure- acct back in line,back to using acct/margin mngt learned soo much about myself hit some pretty low lows with the depression/axyiety/worry/self doubt/anger lol.but managed to pull it together- have a new plan/goals &most important a positive attitude..i took a 50k hit but i can easily recpover most things are now at better prices (audusd)250pips better lol i just need to b patient..watch the fundie stories and keep working the charts and learning from ashraf&solid traders like u&ignore..i really relate to #13 lol..i was getting too confident and the market corrected that attitude really fast :(..anyways im off to jamaica on monday will monitor things from there while i drink cold beers and smoke a big bat:):) vaca time pls:) gl/gt:)
adamcpf
Lisbon, Qatar
Posts: 58
13 years ago
Mar 25, 2011 22:45
@DaveO & Gunjack

Fantastic posts gentlemen, very helpful indeed. Since i've been coming to this site my trading has improved tenfold, in every aspect. There is always something to learn. Thanks alot and have a nice weekend.

Adam
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Mar 25, 2011 21:13
I don't mean to be negative, just like truth. Anyone who is still trading after 2 yrs can feel pretty proud of themselves so long as they are not losing big money during the development stage. It is not necessary to use large size in early stages and forex is especially accomodative for small lot size.
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