Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:
Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
on the daily our potential ABC scenario is satisfied at 1.0286 ish but we are biased short for the medium and longer term. ABC implies simple corrective finished so back to new highs above 1.0612. very difficult to imagine that at this particular time.
I see the 161.8% ext to pattern at 1.0218 coinciding with 38.2% ret same level & 100 dma at 1.0200 ish (A tight cluster of potential support confluence). Below this cluster level we have fractal level at 1.0100 coinciding with the 50% ret level. I would expect a reaction maybe lasting a few days from one of these levels, basis daily chart.
Australia: Running Out of Luck Down Under
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox
btw, cat, do u have final target for aussie? shall we see 0.6*?
The Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49.2 in August from 50.1 in July
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) of stocks fell 0.3 percent on Aug. 31 to the lowest level since February 2009.
The SHCOMP is a good leading indicator for DOW DAX etc., running ahead by about 3 months.
Only the expectations policy makers will act to revive the economy delays a crash in DOW etc., together with bets Draghi fires a super bazooka.
But how could China politics act? They have to cope with a bankrupt shadow banking system, growing bad loans , falling export orders .
Most likely is a further reduction in reserve requirements. But that could lead to consumer price inflation.
Given the huge number of jobs China industry must create, a GDP growth rate of less than 8,5% is insufficient.
I still expect very high profits in short aussie , and too in AUDJPY, but wait for reaction of PBOC for
another entry. I am already in a short position aussie