EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
EUR unable to stand above $1.45 as Moody's cuts Ireland and spreads continue to widen. Focus on Europe and US CPI to justify ECB rate hike and increasingly hawkish Fed. In addition to a busy US earnings release, US econ calendar is busy, with CPI, TICS and Indus Production.
For the third consecutive trading session, the euro cannot hold its ground above $1.45 handle as momentum behind last week's ECB tightening appears to be dissipating. Renewed sovereign debt focus on the periphery dragged the single currency back below $1.4450 after Moody's cut Ireland by two notches citing its weaker economic prospects. Meanwhile, sovereign debt swaps continue to blow out particularly for Portugal and Greece - the latter seeing its CDS rise to record highs despite reassurance from ECB's Orphanides that a restructuring is not inevitable.
US CPI to be released at 8:30ET (12:30 GMT) expected to stay unchanged at 0.2% m/m increase on a more closely tracked Core level. Anything stronger marks the highest rate of growth in almost two years, bolstering the case of the more hawkish FOMC members calling for tightening before the end of this year. US Mar Indus Production expected at +0.6% after -0.1, with Cap Utlization exp at 77.3 from 76.3. Apr prelim UMich consumer sentiment survey exp at 69 from 67.5.
EU CPI was slightly on the hotter side at 2.7%, sending EUR/USD above $1.4470, but Friday could see more defined risk aversion supporting the dollar. Note that Google, reporting results afterhours on Thursday was a major disappointment, with shares falling over 5% below $550 to a 2-month low. Following a disappointing result from high-flyer JPMorgan earlier this week, Bank of America also disappointed on both revenues and earnings. As was the case with Alcoa on Monday, risk aversion in equities still correlates, albeit not as pronounced with USD demand.
TIC data (9:00 ET, 13:00 GMT, 14:00 BST) may also support the greenback through higher Treasury rates, particularly if China remains a net seller as it has been for the past 3 months. Recall Japan, which until now has picked up the slack for China, is increasingly likely to shift its investment objectives inward to help meet the demands of earthquake recovery just as the June expiration of the 3rd key buyer of US debt - Federal Reserve - draws nearer. 10-year yields fell for much of this week to enter Friday below 3.50% but historically have a tendency to rise on disappointing TIC flows.
By GG - AshrafLaidi.com Staff
Last week, USD hit its lowest since 2009 and this week doesnt look as if it will be any different. The backdrop of political turmoil inside the US allied to loose monetary policy continues to erode the appeal of the greenback as global central banks combat rising prices with rate hikes, further widening yield differentials over the US currency.
INFLATION DATA out of the US later this week is unlikely to lead to tighter monetary policy anytime this year, while rising inflation from German, UK and China is likely to show further rises in price pressures. US retail sales and industrial production will also be in focus later in the week.
With little in the way of data today, the main focus will be on tomorrows UK and German inflation numbers, as well as Portugal's meeting with IMF, ECB and European Union officials. Geopolitical factors are also likely to continue to put upward pressure on oil prices with US Crude surging through $110 a barrel at the end of last week, further boosting the Canadian dollar as turmoil throughout the Middle East and Africa threatens to spread.
EURUSD faces immediate resistance at the 2010 highs of around 1.4580, with support near the November highs of 1.4280. GBPUSD still looks set to test its 2010 highs of 1.6460. AUDUSD pushing to fresh float highs, boosted by the Aussies large yield differential against USD and yen and surging commodity prices. These 2 factors combined remain the winning formula for the currency as long as equity indices are not in sell-mode and the risk button is firmly pressed. Support now at 1.0420, the 4th April highs.
By KM - AshrafLaidi.com staff
Ashraf
USD the new Peso thanks to Bernanke. Well thats what he wants, except as is evident in the 3rd world countries, printing money never created jobs. They better fix the structural stuff, because even before QE, US firms and the rich had plenty of capital to deploy, just limited good ideas for business formation.