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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:

USD

Discuss USD
 
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
10 years ago
Apr 4, 2011 17:07
I would think that if ECB do not hike then Trichet would have to do some mighty smart talkin to avoid serious down move in eur currency. He has spent several months "conning" the mkts with rate talk. As to BOE a hike would be 0.25 and this is already built in to a large extent so the reaction would likely be modest. No hike by BOE might see a modest sell off. I doubt that either CB's will hike rates this week.
rim
Turkey
Posts: 121
10 years ago
Apr 4, 2011 16:04
Dear Ashraf ,

If BOE and ECB donot hike the rates , DXY how will be effected ?

If so dollar can go to which resistance ?

Thanks
Kam
london, UK
Posts: 31
10 years ago
Apr 1, 2011 14:49
once against USDCHF long went in at 9265 post NFP. monthly hammer, stronger US fundamentals, Euro debt issues will almost certainly resurface next week once the rate hike circus is over (regardless of 25 bp increase). we all know flight from euro is correlated with flight from CHF to USD. No brainer!
Kam
london, UK
Posts: 31
10 years ago
Apr 1, 2011 14:45
USDCHF long a no brainer first target 9500.

Kam
subway90
Posts: 1078
10 years ago
Mar 23, 2011 3:32
Euro just needs to clear 4150 support and we'll likely see a drop similar to price action of feb 3...
if drop comes within 16 hours.... the tp comes in around 4020/30 initially... extension below 4000 level could see 3930/50....

gl/gt
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
10 years ago
Mar 23, 2011 2:43
Usikpa, the easy answer to your question would be to go long USD against a currency such as AUD or NZD on the premise that the definite end of QE2 would lead to GRADUALLY more hawkish stance by the Fed and potentially (I said potentially but not necessarily a materilization) a rate hike in 2012. Again, there is NO NEED for rate hikes to develop, just the need for fed funds futures to ALLOW for that possibility. Same thing as was in Q1 2010. Another way to play this is to short bonds. There are several ETFs that are inverse treasuries. At these low levels of Treasury yields, it makes sense to pick up the yield.

Ashraf
Max M
Wellington, New Zealand
Posts: 1
10 years ago
Mar 22, 2011 22:48
The best indication of the potential for US decline is in the long term USD.CHF chart. Send an email to TRL@clear.net.nz and I'll show you. Max.
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
10 years ago
Mar 21, 2011 8:27
Ashraf,

How can one best trade a conviction there won't be QE3?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
10 years ago
Mar 20, 2011 20:43
Rob, interest rate expectations as priced in by the futures markets (US and abroad) have had their share of inaccurate calls beacause their goal is not to predict but to reflect the actualy decline or increase in those contracts.

For example, say US NFP comes in TWICE better than expected for TWO months in a row. That would obviously lead to a selloff in fed funds futures (prices go down and implied yield goes up). And when these contracts are incorporated into the formula that determines the CALCULATED PROBABILITY of Fed Funds 1 month, 2 months or 5 months out, you can derive the implied fed funds rate. But say after those stellar jobs reports, US equities enter a 8% correction and housing data go from bad to worse and consumer demand drops, then obviously those calculations will change because market level of fed funds rate would drop and the implied rate into the future could even start calling for rate cuts.

Bottom line: Fed funds futures depend on the data at hand.

Ashraf
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posts: 1183
10 years ago
Mar 19, 2011 22:59
now that conflict has hit the highest level..i wonder if this is the catylyst to give usdx the safehaven statis which it has been denied so far:(..ok gl guys:)