Forum - USD (Topic)

Rob

New York, United States

Posts: 305

13 years ago

Mar 16, 2011 0:38

All: Article worth reading:http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110315-714660.html

Does anyone or Ashraf have charts or info about rate expectations in the past and how they panned out regarding actual rate increases/decreases by central banks (part. the Fed) ?

Thanks,
Rob

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

13 years ago

Mar 15, 2011 11:24

Markets gradually positioning to what could be a Japanese market meltdown after a 4th nuclear reactor blew up. Japans Nikkei-225 ended down 10% (considered a crash) after a having been -14% at some point earlier today. SP500 futures -30 pts at 1260 (further below the 55-day MA) and US Dow-30 futures -238 pts. The classic case of risk aversion is prompting renewed yen strength alongside the USD. AUDUSD breaks below its 200-day MA of 0.9960, eyeing prelim target of 0.99, while EURUSD seen supported at the trendline support of $1.3820 since Jan 10. The USD rally called last week is underway, but it is unlikely for EURUSD to close below this level in the event as long as the FOMC does not show any dissenters with QE2. Interestingly, todays FOMC meeting was expected to show the early signs of a departure away from QE2 via the possible hawkish dissenters, but the Committee may hold off from dissenting in light what is happening in Japan. Gold and silver are near their recent highs on safehaven fears while oil is down 2%. As US indices are now flat for the year, we expect at least another 2.5% decline in S&P500 and Dow-30 from these levels.

Ashraf

rim

Turkey

Posts: 121

13 years ago

Mar 14, 2011 19:40

More dollar weakness mean more EURO appreciation more Oil price and more inflation.Then FED will not sustain its goal of recovery. See the consumer confidence , people less spend ,

chloethebull

halifax, Canada

Posts: 1183

13 years ago

Mar 14, 2011 19:06

@rim..i remember not long ago big ben said fed could raise rates in 15min notice if they had/wanted to ..all tho its highly unlikely as fed wants to keep dollar weak..as u can see all we get is talk about what they can do..so prob b more $$ weakness for next few days..also if japan is dumping us treasuries to help raise the 7trln yen..i wonder who is buying them ..prob china..ok gl guys:)

rim

Turkey

Posts: 121

13 years ago

Mar 14, 2011 18:37

Dear Ashraf,

Do you think tomorrow FED may help Japan as hikin rates?

Thanks Rim

Klondike

Idaho, United States

Posts: 27

13 years ago

Mar 14, 2011 12:54

I seem to prefer the 'You Snooze you Lose' program developed by Argumentus in 1212.
Dollar Index slips below 76.40 today the balance of power will tip in favor of the bears.

Klondike

Idaho, United States

Posts: 27

13 years ago

Mar 14, 2011 2:28

sounds boring to me.

DaveO

UK

Posted Anonymously

13 years ago

Mar 12, 2011 23:28

Klondike, I know plenty of traders trading with bollinger bands, especialy on smaller timeframes using range bars.

Dr Alexander Elder is worth reading for money management and record keeping. "Come Into My Trading Room" is a good book amongst others. His basic rule is risk maximum 2% of account on any one trade and maximum 5% of account for all open positions in your trading portfolio. Once profit is locked in on a trade by trailing hard stop it can be used to open further position within the 5% rule. He stresses that his 2% and 5% are absolute max and better to work more conservatively most times. I too trade gold and prob my favourite instrument.

Think we had better leave the geegies out of this or will become overly off topic. Mind you I shouldn't be surprised if Ashraf's new forum has a football forecasting thread :-)

Italy beat France today 22-21 in the 6 Nations rugby, now there is a man's game :-)

Klondike

Idaho, United States

Posts: 27

13 years ago

Mar 11, 2011 23:55

I should adjust that last post to say he's currently using the daily chart and depending on how fast, number of pips to get in and out could be using any number of time frames for the candlesticks. Bollinger Bands = warning devices. much unsaid.

Klondike

Idaho , United States

Posted Anonymously

13 years ago

Mar 11, 2011 23:18

DaveO

Thanks for all your input.
I enjoy the ever popular Kentucky Derby, and every other year the prep races...to do it right. Like fx you need something to filter out and in a lot of noise...news, hype, rumors and emotions.
My first experience with horses was after receiving a can't loose method in the mail. Perhaps these can't loose scientific gimmicks worked one time in the past but not by the time they reach the general public. So, I'm leery of some fx stuff sold today and offered in emails.

Money Management is important. A close friend of mine shadow authored a book by a popular fx trader and has promised to show me a few things one of these days. Recommends never risking more than 2% of the account on any one trade. Getting it right one out of four it's possible to make money, but a person can get it right more times than that I should hope refining an edge as you say. This person currently prefers to trade Bollinger bands with 21 EMA and for less stress more sleep, the hourly candlesticks outside of news hours. Much unsaid.

After many years trading gold and gold juniors I naturally gravitated to fx. Always, I am reading the news, absorbing data, select analysts, on and on so why not?
Grew up in Alaska, a bit on the rough it and even wild side at times, but also having associated amongst those with a do it with excellence spirit about them. Hope to contribute to this site periodically, but, may just be a flash in the pan.

This is getting long. With the Derby coming up sort of wanted to talk handicapping, bookies. lol
Later, and thanks again for your contribution to this site.