Intraday Market Thoughts Archives

As much as we'd like to embark on the sell-USD bandwagon as early as possible, we think it is yet best to wait. Studies showing USD weakness starting 3-4 months before Fed rate hikes sound astute and clever, but they're based on average movements and serve as poor guides for swing traders. They will not help you anticipate corrections or pullbacks in current USD weakness. But as the charts below show, there are trends, countertrends and much signaling inside the noise. 

هل يمكن الاعتماد على التحليل_الزمني باستعمال الرياضيات؟ وما هي العوامل الفنية والأساسية التي ستنقذ الذهب من رفع الفائدة؟ تعرّفوا على التفاصيل في هذا الفيديو الحصري مع أشرف العايدي

 

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The challenge with sharp selloffs in indices is drawing retail traders just as the decline begins to stabilize. Could the Nasdaq selloff be reaching the end? The charts below suggest caution for the shorts. The top 2 charts show a rare occurrence of Nasdaq gapping down, while breaking below its 100-DMA of 15680. The last time this happened was in 2019, coinciding with a bottom and subsequent recovery into new records. The bottom chart shows the Nasdaq/10-yr yields ratio is testing a 3-year trend line support. Will it break?

The surge in US bond yields is helped by the broadening cacophony from FOMC members expressing the need to catch up on their price stability mandate. Most challenging for bonds (positive for yields) is the prospect of simultaneously raising interest rates and quantitative easing (Fed selling of bonds after completing the taper process). Beware that a close above 15700 would qualify as a breach below the 100-DMA, but still respect a minor horizontal support—regardless of the candle wick. 

The snapshots below show our messages to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group, where we shorted SPX near 4665, targeting preliminary 4630s and 4560s. Whether the index extends to its 100-DMA remains to be seen. Don't forget also we're close to the 10% correction territory, where algos buyers start to wake up.  It's only Monday and the chorus of FOMC speeches scheduled for the week is suggests the lows are not yet in, but not necessarily far way. Stay tuned.