JPY Soars & Oil Drops
The current decline in oil prices has accelerated the decline in USDJPY as Japan is one of the world's biggest oil importers. Some oil charts are showing a potential for a double top. Those who missed the move in USDPY, should tread carefully. The pair broke below the 55 and 100 DMA in a single day to register its biggest percentage decline since December 2022 of more than 2.5% . DXY is down 0.8%, its fastest daily percentage decline since March 19. Shorting USDJPY at this point is risky as it is resting on the trendline support from the April 2025 low. Do not short USDJPY below155.80/80.
For US crude oil, however, currently trading at 104.15, the the next trendline support stands at $102.00, withe the potential of seeing a $101.30 print. Keep an eye on Brent oil, which is already resting on the trendline support (see chart) at $114.00. A close below $111.00, could become the driver of other energy prices and trigger a sub $100 in crude.
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Whether Fed chair Powell sounds dovish or hawlish in his last press conference as chairman of the Federal Reserve later this evening, the downward path of last resistance for gold and silver is 4430/60 and 69/70 respectively. Using simple horizontal support lines, both metals are likely to find next support around this region, which coincides with the closing value of XAUUSD on the day it bounced off its 200-DMA on March 23. The run-up in US (and rest of G7) bond yields is also dragging down metals and boosting US Dollar. The next shoe to drop is likely to be equities at which point, the selloff in metals will diminish.
Read More...Will stocks begin to fall? Or is there more upside? Watch video here.
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