Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets
Wiley Trading Series - 2008

*Ranked #1 in Amazon's Foreign Exchange and Finance sub-categories

 

Chapter 1 Gold and the Dollar

  • End of Bretton Woods System Marks Gold's Takeoff Fed Tightening and FX Interventions Rein in Gold Rally
  • Central Banks Gold Sale Agreements
  • Gold-USD Inverse Relation
  • Recent Exceptions to the Inverse Rule
  • Using Gold to Identify Currency Leaders and Laggards
  • Golds Secular Performance
  • Valuing Currencies via Gold
  • Golden Correlations
  • Dont Forget Falling Gold Production
  • Gold and Equities: Hard versus Monetary Assets
  • Gold-to-Equity Ratios
  • The Role of the Speculators
  • Gold Is Part of a Larger Story

Chapter 2 Oil Fundamentals in the Currency Market

  • From a Gold Standard to an Oil Standard (1970s-1980s)
  • Oil Glut and Price Collapse (1981-1986)
  • The Super Dollar of (1980-1984) The Worlds Third Oil Shock
  • World Intervenes against Strong Dollar (1985-1987)
  • Iraqs Invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War (1990-1991)
  • The Asian Crisis and OPECs Miscalculation (1997-1998)
  • Oil Thrives on World Growth, Dot-Com Boom (1999-2000)
  • Iraq War Fuels Oil Rally, Dollar Flounders, China Takes Over (2002 to Present)

Chapter 3 When the Dollar was King (1999-2001)

  • The Major Theories
  • Annual Performance Analysis of Individual Currencies

Chapter 4 The Dollar Bear Rises (2002-2007)

  • 2002: The Beginning of the Dollar Bear Market
  • 2003: Dollar Extends Damage, Commodity Currencies Soar
  • 2004: Global Recovery Boosts Currencies against U.S. Dollar
  • 2005: Commodities Soar alongside Dollar, Carry Trades Emerge
  • 2006: Dollar Vulnerable as Fed Ends Two-Year Tightening
  • 2007: Record Oil Boosts Loonie, Helpless Fed Hits Greenback
  • Lessons Learned

Chapter 5 Risk Appetite in the Markets

  • Carry Trades in Foreign Exchange
  • Using Risk Appetite to Gauge FX Flows
  • The VIX
  • Futures Flows
  • Corporate Bond Spreads
  • Tying It All Altogether: 1999-2007

Chapter 6 Reading the Fed via Yield Curves, Equities, and Commodities

  • Yield Curves and the Economy
  • Types of Yield Curves
  • Rationale of Inverted Yield Curve Implications
  • Effectiveness of Yield Curve Signals Implications
  • Greenspans Conundrum Proved Bernankes Problem
  • Implications for Growth, Stocks, and Currencies
  • Tying Interest Rates to the Gold-Oil Ratio

Chapter 7 U.S. Imbalances, FX Reserve Diversification, and the U.S. Dollar

  • The U.S. Twin Deficits
  • U.S. Current Account Deficit: Old Problem, New Challenges
  • Adding the Budget Balance to the Mix
  • Financing the Deficits: The Path to Unsustainability?
  • Dissecting U.S.-Bound Foreign Capital Flows
  • U.S. Stocks and Bonds Vie for Foreign Money
  • Capital Flows Shift Identities
  • Foreign Direct Investment and M&As
  • How Long Will Foreign Capital Be Available on the Cheap?
  • Dont Ignore U.S. Investors Flows Abroad
  • Currency Reserve Diversification: OPEC and the Middle East
  • Further Currency Diversification Is Inevitable
  • The View Ahead

Chapter 8 Commodities Super Cycles and Currencies

  • The Current Commodity Cycle versus Previous Cycles
  • Dissecting Commodity Classes
  • Commodities and their Currencies
  • Developing World to Maintain Ripe Outlook for Food and Grains
  • Energy Efficiency Not Enough to Halt High Oil
  • Copper and Gold to Shine on Long Term Fundamentals
  • Commanding Heights or Common Bubbles?

Chapter 9 Selected Topics in Foreign Exchange

  • Revisiting Yield Curves
  • Is Dollar Stability a Necessity?
  • How Far Will Commodities Outstrip Equities?
  • U.S. Politics and the U.S. Dollar
Comments (Showing latest 10 of 10) View All Comments
freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
6 days ago
May 14, 2019 21:46
Develop your Trading Plan

Sometimes there is a misconception that you need highly evolved market knowledge and years of trading experience to be successful. However, we often see that the more information we have the more difficult it is to create a clear plan. More information tends to create hesitation and doubt, which in turn allows emotions to creep in. This can prevent you from taking a step back and looking at a situation subjectively.

If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there. In trading, if you don’t set out a plan for your trades and develop strategies to follow you have no way to measure your success. The vast majority of people do not trade to a plan, so it’s not a mystery why they lose money. Trading with a plan is comparable to building a business. We are never going to be able to beat the market. In general it’s not about winning or losing, it’s about being profitable overall.

Why a trading plan is important
When trading, as in most endeavors, it’s important to start at the end and work backwards to create your plan and figure out what type of trader you should be. The most successful traders trade to a plan, and may even have several plans that work together. Always write things down. Why? Because it will help you stay focused on your trading objectives, and the less judgment we have to use the better. A plan helps you maintain discipline as a trader. It should help you trade consistently, manage your emotions, and even help to improve your trading strategy. It is also important to use your plan. Many people make the mistake of spending all their time creating a plan, then never implementing it.

Key components to develop a trading plan
Trading plan structure and monetary goals
Research and education
Strategy using fundamental and technical tools
Money and risk management
Timing
Trade mechanics, documentation, and testing
How to build a trading plan
Make sure you do your own research and build a plan according to your needs. Find confidence in what you know. The tools you have selected for your strategy are key, from the type of chart to the specific drawing tools to even the most elaborate of strategies. Test your plan in the beginning to make sure you are on the right track. After you have begun trading, continue testing it regularly. This allows you to measure your success by clearly seeing what works and what does not work. From there you can tweak elements that might be weaker and not contributing to your overall goal. Ask yourself the following questions (The answers to these will assist you in the foundation for your trading plan and should be referred back to regularly to insure that you are on track with your plan.)

Why am I trading?
If your immediate answer is, “to make money” you should stop right there. If the only goal is to make as much money as fast as we can, we are ultimately doomed, because it will never be enough. Managing your losses should be your primary goal. This will create an environment in which profits can be generated.

What is your motivation?
Solid retirement? New career? Spend more time with family and friends?

Ask yourself, “What are my strengths and weaknesses?”
How do I maximize my strengths to minimize my weaknesses?
An example of a weakness is a need to constantly watch one’s trades. Is your laptop on the pillow, waking you up in the middle of the night to monitor trades? It’s really difficult to make intelligent decisions when you’re half awake.
Is the amount of money I have to trade with sensible to achieve my goals?
Look at things in percentages; remember leverage is a double-edged sword. That is why risk and money management are key.

Deciding what type of trader you are can be tough; especially since the trader you want to be can be very different from the type of trader you should be based on your behaviors and characteristics. Once you have laid out your goals, risk appetite, strengths, and weaknesses it should become apparent which type of trading fits you best. You will notice three columns in the chart; they are labeled short, base and long. Base equals the timeframe charts you spend the majority of your time, if you are not sure, this is the timeframe chart that you keep going back to. Short and long are the timeframe charts that you refer to confirming or denying what is happening in the base timeframe chart. A common mistake traders make is jumping around randomly between chart timeframes.


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Tiara Mueller
CA, United States
Posts: 0
8 days ago
May 13, 2019 10:58
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Tiara Mueller
CA, United States
Posts: 0
11 days ago
May 10, 2019 10:07
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robertango
kuala lumpur, Malaysia
Posts: 0
5 months ago
Dec 4, 2018 2:42
www.triangularfx.com the best arbitrage trading platforms for both professionals and amateurs like me.

Jasim
Hassa, Saudi Arabia
Posts: 0
7 months ago
Oct 7, 2018 10:31
In reply to supertrader2018's post
I totally agree with you. I've never benefited from Ashraf's signals. His signals always hit stop lose. The last EURGBP, USDCHF, EURUSD are clear proof of his signals.

I will start to go the opposite of his signals. If he goes short I will go long and vise versa.

Regards;



supertrader2018
dublin, Ireland
Posts: 0
10 months ago
Jul 10, 2018 1:31
usdjpy 111.

I warned here it is not a good idea to raise stops. USDJPY is headed 115. If a nontrader like me can see this, why cant a pro like ashraf understand this ?

He is now gone short USDCAD AT 1.31. Just when dollar index is ready and taken support at the 50 DMA, he goes short USDCAD. This is incredible trading.
supertrader2018
dublin, Ireland
Posts: 0
10 months ago
Jul 3, 2018 9:34
All trades stoppd.

USDJPY raised stop to 111.9 is 250 pips from entry. That will be stopped as well.

Everything is stopped. Unbeluevable. Each trade is 250 pip stop and all stopped. I have never seen a worse analyst in my life time. Even when you are beginner, you do better. USDJPY rose from 104.6 to 111.3 without much retracement. Ashraf is buzy shorting it and getting stopped. Again he goes stort. He has no clue what is happening in the world or politics.
supertrader2018
dublin, Ireland
Posts: 0
11 months ago
Jun 20, 2018 3:20
CADJPY starts the climb....

Ashraf has no clue and went and shorted it. To justify it, he comes with some weird charts about how it failed 85 and hence it means it will fall to 79. Gotta give him the credit for manufacture of the same low quality analysis from the time he started this nonsense.
supertrader2018
dublin, Ireland
Posts: 0
11 months ago
Jun 19, 2018 10:11
Ashraf has disabled twitter replies I think..no one replies are visible.

Now watch CADJPY moving higher from here.

I bought at 83. Our conman sgnal guy Ashraf sold it at 83.

He is already out of money by 5 pips.

Wait by tmrw this time he wil be out of money by 110 pips and he will be tweeting about Algeria football matches while cliients are losng money.
supertrader2018
dublin, Ireland
Posts: 0
11 months ago
Jun 19, 2018 9:44
Ashrraf new trade is Short CADJPY.

Am going LONG CADJPY. Right here at 83. He goes short at 83.

Just watch this pair move back t 85 and clean him out for the second time in same month.

This is to prove how a bad trader he is...