Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets
Wiley Trading Series - 2008

*Ranked #1 in Amazon's Foreign Exchange and Finance sub-categories


Chapter 1 Gold and the Dollar

  • End of Bretton Woods System Marks Gold's Takeoff Fed Tightening and FX Interventions Rein in Gold Rally
  • Central Banks Gold Sale Agreements
  • Gold-USD Inverse Relation
  • Recent Exceptions to the Inverse Rule
  • Using Gold to Identify Currency Leaders and Laggards
  • Golds Secular Performance
  • Valuing Currencies via Gold
  • Golden Correlations
  • Dont Forget Falling Gold Production
  • Gold and Equities: Hard versus Monetary Assets
  • Gold-to-Equity Ratios
  • The Role of the Speculators
  • Gold Is Part of a Larger Story

Chapter 2 Oil Fundamentals in the Currency Market

  • From a Gold Standard to an Oil Standard (1970s-1980s)
  • Oil Glut and Price Collapse (1981-1986)
  • The Super Dollar of (1980-1984) The Worlds Third Oil Shock
  • World Intervenes against Strong Dollar (1985-1987)
  • Iraqs Invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War (1990-1991)
  • The Asian Crisis and OPECs Miscalculation (1997-1998)
  • Oil Thrives on World Growth, Dot-Com Boom (1999-2000)
  • Iraq War Fuels Oil Rally, Dollar Flounders, China Takes Over (2002 to Present)

Chapter 3 When the Dollar was King (1999-2001)

  • The Major Theories
  • Annual Performance Analysis of Individual Currencies

Chapter 4 The Dollar Bear Rises (2002-2007)

  • 2002: The Beginning of the Dollar Bear Market
  • 2003: Dollar Extends Damage, Commodity Currencies Soar
  • 2004: Global Recovery Boosts Currencies against U.S. Dollar
  • 2005: Commodities Soar alongside Dollar, Carry Trades Emerge
  • 2006: Dollar Vulnerable as Fed Ends Two-Year Tightening
  • 2007: Record Oil Boosts Loonie, Helpless Fed Hits Greenback
  • Lessons Learned

Chapter 5 Risk Appetite in the Markets

  • Carry Trades in Foreign Exchange
  • Using Risk Appetite to Gauge FX Flows
  • The VIX
  • Futures Flows
  • Corporate Bond Spreads
  • Tying It All Altogether: 1999-2007

Chapter 6 Reading the Fed via Yield Curves, Equities, and Commodities

  • Yield Curves and the Economy
  • Types of Yield Curves
  • Rationale of Inverted Yield Curve Implications
  • Effectiveness of Yield Curve Signals Implications
  • Greenspans Conundrum Proved Bernankes Problem
  • Implications for Growth, Stocks, and Currencies
  • Tying Interest Rates to the Gold-Oil Ratio

Chapter 7 U.S. Imbalances, FX Reserve Diversification, and the U.S. Dollar

  • The U.S. Twin Deficits
  • U.S. Current Account Deficit: Old Problem, New Challenges
  • Adding the Budget Balance to the Mix
  • Financing the Deficits: The Path to Unsustainability?
  • Dissecting U.S.-Bound Foreign Capital Flows
  • U.S. Stocks and Bonds Vie for Foreign Money
  • Capital Flows Shift Identities
  • Foreign Direct Investment and M&As
  • How Long Will Foreign Capital Be Available on the Cheap?
  • Dont Ignore U.S. Investors Flows Abroad
  • Currency Reserve Diversification: OPEC and the Middle East
  • Further Currency Diversification Is Inevitable
  • The View Ahead

Chapter 8 Commodities Super Cycles and Currencies

  • The Current Commodity Cycle versus Previous Cycles
  • Dissecting Commodity Classes
  • Commodities and their Currencies
  • Developing World to Maintain Ripe Outlook for Food and Grains
  • Energy Efficiency Not Enough to Halt High Oil
  • Copper and Gold to Shine on Long Term Fundamentals
  • Commanding Heights or Common Bubbles?

Chapter 9 Selected Topics in Foreign Exchange

  • Revisiting Yield Curves
  • Is Dollar Stability a Necessity?
  • How Far Will Commodities Outstrip Equities?
  • U.S. Politics and the U.S. Dollar
Comments (Showing latest 10 of 10) View All Comments
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
18 days ago
Apr 2, 2014 11:57
City Index tops FXWeek’s 3-month & 1-month rankings of currency forecasts, ahead of banks & competitors.

Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
24 days ago
Mar 27, 2014 11:39
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
37 days ago
Mar 14, 2014 10:28
Those who read my book and the part about Gold/Oil ratio leading equity turns, check out the Gold/oil ratio now.

ice age, French Polynesia
Posts: 464
44 days ago
Mar 7, 2014 19:28
In reply to Sahid's post
long over the w'end for EU on japan open
except some pullback, forward operation at 1.5292 for the lover of this instrument.
ice age, French Polynesia
Posts: 464
44 days ago
Mar 7, 2014 15:12
In reply to Sahid's post
quelques projections navales sur le marché.
ice age, French Polynesia
Posts: 464
44 days ago
Mar 7, 2014 15:01
In reply to Sahid's post
eh ashraf
i just knew levin guys behind has a file on my person
i hope they dont forget the Kuwait geostrategy in thepersian gulf in the iron mountain
ice age, French Polynesia
Posts: 464
44 days ago
Mar 7, 2014 13:39
In reply to Sahid's post
NBER Hunter wrecked her forecast of weak NFP
they loved the NFP for FY15 at the base
ice age, French Polynesia
Posts: 464
44 days ago
Mar 7, 2014 13:26
In reply to Sahid's post
short EU 3896
ice age, French Polynesia
Posts: 464
44 days ago
Mar 7, 2014 13:15
In reply to Ashraf Laidi's post
salut philippe
il y a un syrien a moustache dans ma ville qui a besoin de sefaire peindre les cheveux.
le steak est trop gros ici pour les jeunes frnechies.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
44 days ago
Mar 7, 2014 11:49
Recording link to my webinar from last night