Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets
Wiley Trading Series - 2008

*Ranked #1 in Amazon's Foreign Exchange and Finance sub-categories

 

Chapter 1 Gold and the Dollar

  • End of Bretton Woods System Marks Gold's Takeoff Fed Tightening and FX Interventions Rein in Gold Rally
  • Central Banks Gold Sale Agreements
  • Gold-USD Inverse Relation
  • Recent Exceptions to the Inverse Rule
  • Using Gold to Identify Currency Leaders and Laggards
  • Golds Secular Performance
  • Valuing Currencies via Gold
  • Golden Correlations
  • Dont Forget Falling Gold Production
  • Gold and Equities: Hard versus Monetary Assets
  • Gold-to-Equity Ratios
  • The Role of the Speculators
  • Gold Is Part of a Larger Story

Chapter 2 Oil Fundamentals in the Currency Market

  • From a Gold Standard to an Oil Standard (1970s-1980s)
  • Oil Glut and Price Collapse (1981-1986)
  • The Super Dollar of (1980-1984) The Worlds Third Oil Shock
  • World Intervenes against Strong Dollar (1985-1987)
  • Iraqs Invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War (1990-1991)
  • The Asian Crisis and OPECs Miscalculation (1997-1998)
  • Oil Thrives on World Growth, Dot-Com Boom (1999-2000)
  • Iraq War Fuels Oil Rally, Dollar Flounders, China Takes Over (2002 to Present)

Chapter 3 When the Dollar was King (1999-2001)

  • The Major Theories
  • Annual Performance Analysis of Individual Currencies

Chapter 4 The Dollar Bear Rises (2002-2007)

  • 2002: The Beginning of the Dollar Bear Market
  • 2003: Dollar Extends Damage, Commodity Currencies Soar
  • 2004: Global Recovery Boosts Currencies against U.S. Dollar
  • 2005: Commodities Soar alongside Dollar, Carry Trades Emerge
  • 2006: Dollar Vulnerable as Fed Ends Two-Year Tightening
  • 2007: Record Oil Boosts Loonie, Helpless Fed Hits Greenback
  • Lessons Learned

Chapter 5 Risk Appetite in the Markets

  • Carry Trades in Foreign Exchange
  • Using Risk Appetite to Gauge FX Flows
  • The VIX
  • Futures Flows
  • Corporate Bond Spreads
  • Tying It All Altogether: 1999-2007

Chapter 6 Reading the Fed via Yield Curves, Equities, and Commodities

  • Yield Curves and the Economy
  • Types of Yield Curves
  • Rationale of Inverted Yield Curve Implications
  • Effectiveness of Yield Curve Signals Implications
  • Greenspans Conundrum Proved Bernankes Problem
  • Implications for Growth, Stocks, and Currencies
  • Tying Interest Rates to the Gold-Oil Ratio

Chapter 7 U.S. Imbalances, FX Reserve Diversification, and the U.S. Dollar

  • The U.S. Twin Deficits
  • U.S. Current Account Deficit: Old Problem, New Challenges
  • Adding the Budget Balance to the Mix
  • Financing the Deficits: The Path to Unsustainability?
  • Dissecting U.S.-Bound Foreign Capital Flows
  • U.S. Stocks and Bonds Vie for Foreign Money
  • Capital Flows Shift Identities
  • Foreign Direct Investment and M&As
  • How Long Will Foreign Capital Be Available on the Cheap?
  • Dont Ignore U.S. Investors Flows Abroad
  • Currency Reserve Diversification: OPEC and the Middle East
  • Further Currency Diversification Is Inevitable
  • The View Ahead

Chapter 8 Commodities Super Cycles and Currencies

  • The Current Commodity Cycle versus Previous Cycles
  • Dissecting Commodity Classes
  • Commodities and their Currencies
  • Developing World to Maintain Ripe Outlook for Food and Grains
  • Energy Efficiency Not Enough to Halt High Oil
  • Copper and Gold to Shine on Long Term Fundamentals
  • Commanding Heights or Common Bubbles?

Chapter 9 Selected Topics in Foreign Exchange

  • Revisiting Yield Curves
  • Is Dollar Stability a Necessity?
  • How Far Will Commodities Outstrip Equities?
  • U.S. Politics and the U.S. Dollar
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Jul 2, 2019 23:15
Bump and Run Reversal
The pattern was originally named the Bump and Run Formation, or BARF. Bulkowski decided that Wall Street was not ready for such an acronym and changed the name to Bump and Run Reversal. Bulkowski identified three main phases to the pattern: lead-in, bump, and run. We will examine these phases and also look at Forex Signals volume and pattern validation.

1. Lead-in Phase: The first part of the pattern is a lead-in phase that can last 1 month or longer and forms the basis from which to draw the trend line. During this phase, prices advance in an orderly manner and there is no excess speculation. The trend line should be moderately steep. If it is too steep, then the ensuing bump is unlikely to be significant enough. If the trend line is not steep enough, then the subsequent trend line break will occur too late. Bulkowski advises that an angle of 30 to 45 degrees is preferable. The size of the angle will depend on the scaling (semi-log or arithmetic) and the size of the chart. It is probably easier to judge the soundness of the trend line with a visual assessment.

2. Bump Phase: The bump forms with a sharp advance, and prices move further away from the lead-in trend line. Ideally, the angle of the trend line from the bump's advance should be about 50% greater than the angle of the trend line extending up from the lead-in phase. Roughly speaking, this would call for an angle between 45 and 60 degrees. If it is not possible to measure the angles, then a visual assessment will suffice.

3. Bump Validity: It is important that the bump represent a speculative advance that cannot be sustained for a long time. Bulkowski developed what he calls an “arbitrary” measuring technique to validate the level of speculation in the bump. The distance from the highest high of the bump to the lead-in trend line should be at least twice the distance from the highest high in the lead-in phase to the lead-in trend line. These distances can be measured by drawing a vertical line from the highest highs to the lead-in trend line. An example is provided in the chart below.

4. Bump Rollover: After speculation dies down, prices begin to peak and a top forms. Sometimes, a small double top or a series of descending peaks forms instead. Prices begin to decline towards the lead-in trend line, and the right side of the bump forms.

5. Volume: As the stock advances during the lead-in phase, volume is usually average and sometimes low. When the speculative advance begins to form the left side of the bump, volume expands as the advance accelerates.

6. Run Phase: The run phase begins when the pattern breaks support from the lead-in trend line. Prices will sometimes hesitate or bounce off the trend line before breaking through. Once the break occurs, the run phase takes over, and the decline continues.

7. Support Turns Resistance: After the trend line is broken, there is sometimes a retracement that tests the newfound resistance level. Potential support-turned-resistance levels can also be identified from the reaction lows within the bump.

The Bump and Run Reversal pattern can be applied to Forex Signals daily, weekly or monthly charts. As stated above, the pattern is designed to identify speculative advances that are unsustainable for a long period. Because prices rise very fast to form the left side of the bump, the subsequent decline can be just as ferocious.

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Triple Bottom Reversal
The Triple Bottom Reversal is a bullish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts and candlestick charts. There are three equal lows followed by a break above resistance. As major reversal patterns, these patterns usually form over a 3- to 6-month period. Note that a Triple Bottom Reversal on a bar or line chart is completely different from Triple Bottom Breakdown on a P&F chart. Namely, Triple Bottom Breakouts on P&F charts are bearish patterns that mark a downside support break. We will first examine the individual parts of the pattern and then look at an example.

Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there should be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Triple Bottom Reversal, a clear downtrend should precede the formation.

Three Lows: All three lows should be reasonably equal, well-spaced and mark significant turning points. The lows do not have to be exactly equal, but should be reasonably equivalent.

Volume: As the Triple Bottom Reversal develops, overall volume levels usually decline. Volume sometimes increases near the lows. After the third low, an expansion of volume on the advance and at the resistance breakout greatly reinforces the soundness of the pattern.

Resistance Break: As with many other reversal patterns, the Triple Bottom Reversal is not complete until a resistance breakout. The highest point of the formation, which would be the highest of the intermittent highs, marks resistance.

Resistance Turns Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support, and there is sometimes a test of this newfound support level with the first correction.

Price Target: The distance from the resistance breakout to lows can be measured and added to the resistance break for a price target. The longer the pattern develops, the more significant is the ultimate breakout. Triple Bottom Reversals that are 6 or more months in duration represent major bottoms and a price target is less likely to be effective.

As the Triple Bottom Reversal develops, it can start to resemble a number of patterns. Before the third low forms, the pattern may look like a Double Bottom Reversal. Three equal lows can also be found in a descending triangle or rectangle. Of these patterns mentioned, only the descending triangle has bearish overtones; the others are neutral until a breakout occurs. Similarly, the Triple Bottom Reversal should also be treated as a neutral pattern until a breakout occurs. The ability to hold support is bullish, but demand has not won the battle until resistance is broken. Volume on the last advance can sometimes yield a clue. If there is a sharp increase in volume and momentum, then the chances of a breakout increase.

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