Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets
Wiley Trading Series - 2008

*Ranked #1 in Amazon's Foreign Exchange and Finance sub-categories

 

Chapter 1 Gold and the Dollar

  • End of Bretton Woods System Marks Gold's Takeoff Fed Tightening and FX Interventions Rein in Gold Rally
  • Central Banks Gold Sale Agreements
  • Gold-USD Inverse Relation
  • Recent Exceptions to the Inverse Rule
  • Using Gold to Identify Currency Leaders and Laggards
  • Golds Secular Performance
  • Valuing Currencies via Gold
  • Golden Correlations
  • Dont Forget Falling Gold Production
  • Gold and Equities: Hard versus Monetary Assets
  • Gold-to-Equity Ratios
  • The Role of the Speculators
  • Gold Is Part of a Larger Story

Chapter 2 Oil Fundamentals in the Currency Market

  • From a Gold Standard to an Oil Standard (1970s-1980s)
  • Oil Glut and Price Collapse (1981-1986)
  • The Super Dollar of (1980-1984) The Worlds Third Oil Shock
  • World Intervenes against Strong Dollar (1985-1987)
  • Iraqs Invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War (1990-1991)
  • The Asian Crisis and OPECs Miscalculation (1997-1998)
  • Oil Thrives on World Growth, Dot-Com Boom (1999-2000)
  • Iraq War Fuels Oil Rally, Dollar Flounders, China Takes Over (2002 to Present)

Chapter 3 When the Dollar was King (1999-2001)

  • The Major Theories
  • Annual Performance Analysis of Individual Currencies

Chapter 4 The Dollar Bear Rises (2002-2007)

  • 2002: The Beginning of the Dollar Bear Market
  • 2003: Dollar Extends Damage, Commodity Currencies Soar
  • 2004: Global Recovery Boosts Currencies against U.S. Dollar
  • 2005: Commodities Soar alongside Dollar, Carry Trades Emerge
  • 2006: Dollar Vulnerable as Fed Ends Two-Year Tightening
  • 2007: Record Oil Boosts Loonie, Helpless Fed Hits Greenback
  • Lessons Learned

Chapter 5 Risk Appetite in the Markets

  • Carry Trades in Foreign Exchange
  • Using Risk Appetite to Gauge FX Flows
  • The VIX
  • Futures Flows
  • Corporate Bond Spreads
  • Tying It All Altogether: 1999-2007

Chapter 6 Reading the Fed via Yield Curves, Equities, and Commodities

  • Yield Curves and the Economy
  • Types of Yield Curves
  • Rationale of Inverted Yield Curve Implications
  • Effectiveness of Yield Curve Signals Implications
  • Greenspans Conundrum Proved Bernankes Problem
  • Implications for Growth, Stocks, and Currencies
  • Tying Interest Rates to the Gold-Oil Ratio

Chapter 7 U.S. Imbalances, FX Reserve Diversification, and the U.S. Dollar

  • The U.S. Twin Deficits
  • U.S. Current Account Deficit: Old Problem, New Challenges
  • Adding the Budget Balance to the Mix
  • Financing the Deficits: The Path to Unsustainability?
  • Dissecting U.S.-Bound Foreign Capital Flows
  • U.S. Stocks and Bonds Vie for Foreign Money
  • Capital Flows Shift Identities
  • Foreign Direct Investment and M&As
  • How Long Will Foreign Capital Be Available on the Cheap?
  • Dont Ignore U.S. Investors Flows Abroad
  • Currency Reserve Diversification: OPEC and the Middle East
  • Further Currency Diversification Is Inevitable
  • The View Ahead

Chapter 8 Commodities Super Cycles and Currencies

  • The Current Commodity Cycle versus Previous Cycles
  • Dissecting Commodity Classes
  • Commodities and their Currencies
  • Developing World to Maintain Ripe Outlook for Food and Grains
  • Energy Efficiency Not Enough to Halt High Oil
  • Copper and Gold to Shine on Long Term Fundamentals
  • Commanding Heights or Common Bubbles?

Chapter 9 Selected Topics in Foreign Exchange

  • Revisiting Yield Curves
  • Is Dollar Stability a Necessity?
  • How Far Will Commodities Outstrip Equities?
  • U.S. Politics and the U.S. Dollar
Comments (Showing latest 10 of 10) View All Comments
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
9 hours ago
Jun 19, 2013 8:59
Ashraf's tells CNBC why he expects the US dollar to have the last word despite expecting no Fed tapering for this year
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000176806


Ashraf
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
45 days ago
May 4, 2013 22:04
oops. "The Fox knows many things, the Hedgehog one great thing"
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
45 days ago
May 4, 2013 22:03
In reply to Ashraf Laidi's post
That was a very good discussion Ashraf.

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- Archilochos


Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
46 days ago
May 4, 2013 17:13
My CNBC hit on
- negative rates
- Fox-Hedgehog analogy on Draghi-Bernanke
- Macro/Mkt Divergence

and more
http://youtu.be/6YPjeY634B0


Ashraf
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
2 months ago
Apr 16, 2013 19:31
In reply to Ashraf Laidi's post
Unfortunately sms does not suit my schedules so I can't complain about that. I think a part of the problem in more recent months is that the Asian session has become very much more relevant but I refuse to be in screens more than about 16 hrs per day. Consequently I can easily fall behind with your thoughts and analysis, not to mention very busy news feeds since Abenomics was added to Ben and Draghi.

An MT4 copier would help to place the various trade orders which would save a lot of time for the user. As far as I am aware this could be done on a demo MT4 so that there is no one size fits all difficulty. Individual traders select which trades they wish to pursue. Currently I add your trades to my ensign charts so I can assess the technical position of each.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
2 months ago
Apr 16, 2013 13:05
Dave,

Thks for the feedback.

The reason I do not issue more trades than I already do is because each recommendation is in fact accompanied by an SMS text, an alert, a premium post and an IMT.

And EVERY SINGLE trade is archived until the next edition of the Premium is posted.

I agree with the updating of those trades which were stopped out or hit all targets.

Will try to expedite that part. But I do think that the people can very well check for themselves, whether these were filled or not.

Thks again

Ashraf
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
2 months ago
Apr 16, 2013 1:33
In reply to DaveO's post
Oops, I just noticed you have an archive.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
2 months ago
Apr 16, 2013 1:25
Ashraf, I am finding your trade sheet increasingly difficult to follow. Bearing in mind you work 24hr shifts so trades can be added or altered at any time of the day or night you need to improve time and date stamping methodology. Also you need to update the sheet quickly when trades are stopped out. I have noticed up to 2 or 3 day lags sometimes.

Its becoming a nightmare for me to follow with so many trades and multi positioning of same symbol trades. Also bits of commentary added in to extend old trade sheets. All this and having to tie in with 24hr twitter alerts looking for appropriate time/date stamps. It's not satisfactory imo.

I also think you should run a trade sheet archive for back referencing so if a trade/s goes missing off the current extended sheet one can back refer.

Most signal services overcome these potential problems by publishing a myfxbook. I understand why you choose not to do this but the alternative requires much refinement imho. Please accept this critique in the spirit intended.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
2 months ago
Apr 9, 2013 18:44
Arabic Webinar this Thursday 6 pm London, 8 pm Riyadh

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https://www4.gotomeeting.com/register/858192359



Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
2 months ago
Apr 6, 2013 9:15
Here is the audio/video of my 60-minute Thursday webinar, making his calls on EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDJPY, gold, EURJPY, USDJPY, EURAUD and more FTSE-100.

http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp


Ashraf