Clue to our Eid Pop Quiz أي سوق يُمَثل هذا الرسم البياني؟
Wishing you happiness, peace & prosperity in occasion of Eid ul Fitr al Mubarak. This chart below looks very bullish. Guess what it is. And it's not related to Swissy.
أي سوق يُمَثل هذأ الرسم البياني الذي على وشك كسر صعودآ؟ كل عام و انتم بخير
Big USD Week, EUR Net Shorts Soar
The US dollar is poised for liftoff but it needs something, anything, from the Fed to light the ignition in the week ahead. Last week sported the unusual pattern of the Australian dollar as the top performer with the kiwi lagging – boosting one of our Premium trades. The latest CFTC data showed a surge in euro shorts.
Last week ended with a durable goods orders report that was much weaker than the 0.7% headline suggested. Excluding defense and aircraft, both orders and shipments were weak due to sharp downward revisions. That led to some re-issued Q2 GDP forecasts and added downside risks to the 3.0% consensus in the first look at Q2 on Wednesday.
The main events in the week ahead are the FOMC decision and Friday's jobs report. The market has been burned a multitude of times for betting on a slight hawkish shift from Yellen that never seems to come. With the employment market continuing to improve it's growing difficult to justify rates so low.
Commitments of Traders
Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +. EUR -89K vs -63K prior JPY -54K vs -63K prior GBP +27K vs +39K prior AUD +39K vs +40K prior CAD +21K vs +16K prior CHF -7K vs -6K prior NZD +15K vs +15K prior
It doesn't take much to get the euro bears excited. They piled into shorts after the break of 1.3500, driving the euro net short to the most extreme since Nov 2012. The other notable move was the quick shift out of the pound. Traders were slow to warm up and now appear quick to exit with Carney sending mixed signals.
USD Unleashed ahead of Big Week
Which pair has just broken above its 55-WMA for the first time in 10 months, produced two major Golden Crosses in less than 5 weeks and, which is currently sitting on 130-140 pips gain in our Premium Insights? Wednesday's triple US release of ADP, GDP & FOMC (Wednesday) & NFP (Friday) may unleash fresh USD buying, with GDP likely show a 2.9% bounce and the Fed due to affirm the inevitable step towards the end of tapering, alongside some positive colour on jobs. NFP impact may not be too clear, but expectations are looking brighter, considering the clues from ADP and recent trend in jobless claims. Gold selling is seen stabilizing around 1285 as yields are unable to to make any sustainable recovery should help gold remain supported. We remind our subscribers that they are free to hold their longs until the final target, open various positions are different levels aimed at targets around the final objective, or close positions to lock up profits 50-80 pips before the final target in order to re-open fresh trades aiming at around the final objective.
Jobless Claims Give USD a Pulse, Japan CPI Next
The US dollar gained 20-40 pips across the board in NY hours in a steady grind after initial jobless claims improved to 284K from 303K. The reaction was an immediate rise in the dollar followed by a steady climb.
The data was strong enough that markets cast aside other, softer figures. June new home sales plunged to 406K from 475K and the Market manufacturing PMI slipped to 56.3 from 57.5 expected.
One of the main victims of USD strength was gold as it fell below the July low to the worst levels in one month at $1287. The 200-dma just below cushioned the losses and will be a key support line in the days ahead.
Taking a broader view of gold the inability to sustain a rally on a variety of geopolitical crises and repeated dovish headlines from the Fed is a discouraging signal and points to the downside potential.
Other news came from the IMF as global growth forecasts were cut in a widely expected move. US GDP was lowered to 1.7% from 2.8% in the most dramatic change. Emerging markets, especially Latam, was also downgraded. The good news was in the UK and Spain were forecasts for this year and next were boosted.
Looking ahead, the yen enters the spotlight with CPI numbers due at 2330 GMT. USD/JPY has risen for 5 straight days and touched a 3-week high Thursday and crossed the 55-dma. A weak CPI would start to kindle the fires for more QE or other measures. At the very least it could boost USD/JPY toward the June high at 102.50.| Act | Exp | Prev | GMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo CPI (JUL) (y/y) | |||
| 3% | Jul 24 23:30 | ||
| Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (JUL) (y/y) | |||
| 2% | Jul 24 23:30 | ||
| Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (JUL) (y/y) | |||
| 2.7% | 2.8% | Jul 24 23:30 | |
| National CPI (JUN) (y/y) | |||
| 3.7% | Jul 24 23:30 | ||
| National CPI Ex Food, Energy (JUN) (y/y) | |||
| 2.2% | Jul 24 23:30 | ||
| National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (JUN) (y/y) | |||
| 3.3% | 3.4% | Jul 24 23:30 | |
| GDP (Q2) (q/q) [P] | |||
| 0.8% | 0.8% | Jul 25 8:30 | |
| GDP (Q2) (y/y) [P] | |||
| 3.1% | 3.0% | Jul 25 8:30 | |
| Manufacturing PMI [P] | |||
| 56.3 | 57.5 | 57.3 | Jul 24 13:45 |
| Nomura/ JMMA PMI Manufacturing (JUL) [P] | |||
| 50.8 | 51.5 | Jul 24 1:35 | |
| New Home Sales (m/m) | |||
| -8.1% | -5.3% | 8.3% | Jul 24 14:00 |
| Continuing Jobless Claims | |||
| 2,500K | 2,510K | 2,508K | Jul 24 12:30 |
| Initial Jobless Claims | |||
| 284K | 308K | 303K | Jul 24 12:30 |
| Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. | |||
| 302.00K | 309.25K | Jul 24 12:30 | |
Euro's PMI Squeeze, GBP Awaits GDP
Euro's reprieve from better than expected PMI data proved short-lived, while GBPUSD selling intensified today ahead of Friday's release of UK Q2 GDP. 1 of 2 GBUSD trades has been stopped out. We issue fresh trades in EURUSD and GBPUSD with four new charts ahead of Friday's UK data. Our Premium trades in EURJPY remain in progress, while our two EURAUD shorts, are +500 pts in the money, with the 1.4600-1.4630 short entry on Tuesday, targeting 1.4200 missed its final target by 12 pips (today's low was 1.4212). Similarly, our long in AUDNZD issued on Tuesday at 1.0830 produced a high of 1.1016 on Thursday, 4 pips short of the final 1.1020 target. The trade remains intact. All charts & trades are found the Trades section.
| Act | Exp | Prev | GMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone - Indice PMI des services allemand (JUL) [P] | |||
| 56.6 | 54.5 | 54.6 | Jul 24 7:30 |
| Eurozone PMI Manufacturing [P] | |||
| 51.9 | 51.7 | 51.8 | Jul 24 8:00 |
| Eurozone Services PMI [P] | |||
| 54.4 | 52.7 | 52.8 | Jul 24 8:00 |
| GDP (Q2) (q/q) [P] | |||
| 0.8% | 0.8% | Jul 25 8:30 | |
| GDP (Q2) (y/y) [P] | |||
| 3.1% | 3.0% | Jul 25 8:30 | |
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