Intraday Market Thoughts

حدود الذهب و الدولار

Oct 19, 2018 16:59 | by Ashraf Laidi

رغم الإرتفاع بأسعار مؤشر الدولار تمكن الذهب من المحافظة على مكاسبه هذا الاسبوع. الفيديو التالي يلقي نظرة على الاسباب والمستويات الحاسمة

حدود الذهب و الدولار - Orbex Video Snapshot Oct 19 2018 (Chart 1)

How Bad Can it Get for Italy?

Oct 19, 2018 13:55 | by Adam Button

USD is on the downside alongside JPY as global indices rally on willingness from the EU to diffuse Italy's budget excesses. This followed Thursday's drubbing as Italian 10-year yields blew out again on Thursday as the EU and Italian leaders dig in for an extended battle. The saga adds to the cynicism in broad markets that sparked a sharp risk-off tone that boosted JPY and weighed on GBP. Disappointed figures from US existing home saless, Canada CPI and retail sales kept USDCAD in check.The CAD trade was stopped out and a new CAD Premium trade has just been issued ahead of Canada's data. A new intraday index trade will also be issued.

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How Bad Can it Get for Italy? - Ita Ger Spread Oct 19 2018 (Chart 1)

The spread between borrowing costs for 10 years in Italy and Germany widened to the most since 2013 on Thursday as Italian yields rose 14 basis points. The move came after the EU delivered a letter to Italian officials that draw a line in the sand on the budget. It said the budget had a 'significant deviation' from the rules and was 'unprecedented', calling it serious non-compliance. They said planned spending next year increased 2.7% while the max allowed under EU rules is 0.1%. The ball now is in Rome's court as it an explanation is expected from Brussels. But first, Italy's 2 coalition parties have to resolve an internal spat with regards to tax sweeteners to the wealthy initiated by the Northern League.

The risks are high no matter which side backs down. If the EU chooses to dig in and wins the battle, it may further alienate and inspire voters outside the mainstream and lead to significant anti-EU sentiment at a sensitive time.

If Italy's government wins, which is what most expect, then it will further undermine EU rules. Next Friday ratings agencies are also scheduled for an update on Italy. That will be a major risk event. Conte touched on it Thursday saying he thinks a downgrade can be avoided. The market increasingly thinks it's inevitable, with the risk of two-notch downgrade to junk.

The middle ground is narrow. The government may opt to tighten up slightly in a compromise but that's unlikely to be enough for the ratings agencies. That leaves a narrow path for any kind of success in Italy and that will be a steady headwind for the euro.

Friday will be a battle for EURUSD bulls attempting to save the 1.15 barrier.

The turmoil gave a lift to the yen in a classic risk-off trade. GBP/JPY was particularly hard hit despite upbeat words from both sides of the Brexit negotiating table. While a deal between May and EU appears to be making progress, a deal between May and her own government looks increasingly difficult.

Act Exp Prev GMT
CPI (m/m)
0.1% -0.1% Oct 19 12:30
Existing Home Sales
5.29M 5.34M Oct 19 14:00

Gold up on Fed's Inflation Tilt

Oct 18, 2018 15:42 | by Adam Button

USD and gold resume gains on a combination of the hawkish tilt in yesterday's release of the FOMC minutes and today's set of data beats in jobless claims and Philly Fed index. Gold, Aussie and Kiwi are the main outperformers vs USD with the yellow metal favoured by an upward tilt in inflation assessment from the Fed. That is also propping gold during equity sellloffs, which was not the case in Jan-Feb. UK retail sales fell by more than expected but GBP continues to hold alongside the 1.3080 support on emerging talks of an extended transition period post-Brexit. Both metals' Premium trades are in progress.

Gold up on Fed's Inflation Tilt - Performance 18 Oct 2018 (Chart 1)

The Fed minutes added to the debate about where US rates are headed. A number of Fed officials saw the need to hike above the long-run level, which is pegged at the 3.4% median in the dot plot. There was also increasing talk of financial risks from leveraged loans, loosening of standards and non-bank loans.

On inflation risks, three members now see them tilted to the upside compared to one previously. None see them tiled to the downside.

USD/JPY rose to 112.73 but has pulled towards 112.40s as stocks fell on Thursday.

We cautioned that moves on the Minutes tend to fade but this time they may have put bond yields back into focus as 10s rose 4 bps to 3.20% with all the move coming after the Minutes. The market undoubtedly remains sensitive to bonds and the past few days of calm could easily be upended by another similar-sized move. So far, yields face interim resistance at 3.21%. Note that the 200-month moving average is being tested for the 1st time since March 1989. 

Late in the day, the Treasury released its semi-annual FX report and once again refrained from naming anyone a currency manipulator. They warned that recent yuan weakness will likely increase the bilateral trade deficit but also said PBOC direct intervention has been limited this year.

However there was some significant escalation in rhetoric including warnings not to allow further yuan weakness, which the Treasury said it will be watching closely. That tone could weigh on Chinese markets in the day ahead.

Aussie remains on a high note despite falling equities after Aussie unemployment fell to 5.0% from 5.3% and the bulk of the pullback in job creation was from part-time jobs.

Act Exp Prev GMT
Retail Sales (m/m)
-0.8% -0.4% 0.4% Oct 18 8:30
Employment Change
5.6K 15.2K 44.6K Oct 18 0:30

الإسترليني و “الباكستوب” الإرلندي

Oct 17, 2018 17:06 | by Ashraf Laidi

ماهي مشكلة الحدود الإيرلندية؟ ما هو ال”باكستوب”؟ لماذا يصعب الاتفاق على باكستوب؟ ما هو موقف الاتحاد الأوروبي من “باكستوب؟ لماذا يعتبر ذلك مشكلة بالنسبة للمملكة المتحدة؟ اقتراح جديد من “تيريزا ماي”؟” فنياتزوج الجنيه الاسترليني / الدولار الأمريكي التحليل الكامل


Back in the Red, Awaiting Backstops

Oct 17, 2018 15:03 | by Adam Button

Reporters barely had the time to write about Tuesday's 2% stocks surge, before indices in and out of the US slip back in the red on Wednesday. Tuesday saw the best gain for stocks since March 26. UK CPI slipped back to 2.4% from 2.7%, while US housing starts and building permits contracted in September. The Fed minutes of last month's rate hike are due at 2 pm ET, 5 pm BST may shed more light on whether the "accomodative" description to monetary policy was dropped to pave the way for rates pushing above the neutral level, or whether to signal the beginning of the end of the tightening. Powell took the opportunity to signal the former in a subsequent speech. The DAX premium short was stopped out by 40 pts. A new trade has been issued today following Tuesday's 2nd metals trade.

تفسير صفقات الدولار و المعادن

On Tuesday, US August JOLTS job openings jumped to a record 7136K compared to 6900K expected. The NAHB home builder sentiment report rose to 68 vs 66 expected. Industrial production also beat the consensus at +0.3% vs +0.2% forecast.

All eyes on Theresa May's Backstop

British PM Theresa May will aim at closing the gap over the issue of the Irish Border when she meets European Council president Donald Tusk today. The idea is to pave the way for a final agreement on Brexit in mid-November between the EU and the UK before the UK leaves in March of next year. The question of the "Backstop" on the Irish border remains the most difficult issue in the Brexit negotiations.

Sterling posted a solid day as Brexit negotiations go into a holding pattern. Barnier shifted the deadline to a deal to December and there were reports of an EU offer to stay in the customs union beyond 2020 or to stretch the Article 50 deadline another year. Cable remains supported at 1.3100, with preliminary upside objective at 1.3400.

Act Exp Prev GMT
CPI (y/y)
2.4% 2.6% 2.7% Oct 17 8:30