US indices are bouncing higher ahead of the long weekend (US presidents Holiday on Monday), with gold and oil firming along. Interestingly, energy is outperforming metals, while gold rallies against silver as the mint ratio (Gold/Silver Ratio) reaches a 2-month high. The OIL Premium long deepens further in the green. UK retail sales jumped 4.2% y/y, their biggest annual rise since December 2016, but GBP remains weighed by the Brexit impasse. Yesterday saw the worst US retail sales number in a decade, which weighed on USD, but the market was skeptical. 2 Premium trades were added yesterday to the Premium Insights. Technically speaking, both metals trades remain the strongest as the chart below shows. January Empire manufacturing (NY Fed) is due at at 13:30 GMT, followed by US industrial production for January exp +0.3% is due at 14:15 GMT.
Emergency solution usually not a good signThe White House confirmed there won't be another shutdown with Trump poised to sign the spending bill. At the same time, he will declare an emergency to build his border wall. That's sure to create political drama but will matter little to markets. If anything, his fight over the wall may sap his resolve to battle with China where multiple reports said that negotiations are stalled on structural issues – something we warned about yesterday.
US Treasury secr'y Mnuchin continues to sound off his usual optimistic notes, describing talks with with China's Vice Premier Liu He as “productive.” But officials familiar with the discussions indicate that China is resisting US demands for further structural economic reform. Investors are becoming increasingly cautious as the round of talks looks set to wrap up without a resolution. SPX has yet to make a decisive close above the 200-DMA.
Yesterday, US retail sales sank 1.2% in December in the biggest decline since 2009. They had been expected to rise 0.1% after a 0.2% climb in November. The weakness was widespread with the control group down 1.7% compared to +0.4% expected. That was the worst since 2000. Initially the US dollar sank but it later recovered against the euro and pound. USD/JPY fell a half-cent and the losses stuck.
What puzzled investors is how sales could have been so weak when other indications were that customers were solid in the month. Redbook sales were strong and corporates have been upbeat on the US consumer. The government shutdown may have hurt and the equity selloff on Christmas Eve may have curbed Boxing Day sales. If so, those are issues that reversed.Retail sales bounced back sharply in January, rising by 1% on the previous month, official figures showed.
Strong UK salesUK retail sales rose 1% in January after a 0,7% decline in December. Year on year, retail sales rose 4.2%, posting their biggest annual rise since December 2016.
|Retail Sales (m/m)|
|1.0%||0.2%||-0.7%||Feb 15 9:30|
The market remains upbeat about US-China trade negotiations but may be underestimating the risks. Lofty exports Chinese data were released overnight. US retail sales on Thursday are sure to be a market mover. A new Premium trade in commodities was issued yesterday and a trading update was posted on GBP. All indices trade are now closed and a new Trade is due up today. Sterling traders await new debate on Brexit-related amendments in Parliament later this eveing so expect prolonged GBP swings.
The consensus in markets is that the US and China are on their way to deal. Trump and Xi have both sent signals that they don't want a trade war to derail their economies. Based largely on that sentiment, Chinese stocks have climbed 13% from the recent lows and the S&P 500 is up 17% including 8 more points on Wednesday. Markets have gotten a bit ahead of themselves.
The rule of thumb on negotiations is that they're always toughest right at the end. It won't be smooth sailing to the finish line and at this point negative headlines are going to hurt more than positive ones might help. The wild card in negotiations is Robert Lighthizer. He's been pining to be in this spot for his entire 40-year career and he's a notorious China hawk. It would be a big surprise if he doesn't try to push China further than Xi is willing to go.
Elsewhere, economic news Wednesday showed that the market hasn't entirely moved on from inflation worries. US CPI rose 2.2% y/y compared to 2.1% and that gave a lift to the dollar, especially against the euro which slid 65 pips to 1.1260 on the day including a dip after CPI. EURUSD basing process turns to US retail sales and PPI.
Gold also posted an outside day in a fall to $1302 after rising as high as $1318. Keep an eye on $1300/$1296 in the day ahead. A break below would signal a deeper retracement and possibly the end of the uptrend.
Coming up is big slate of economic data culminating with US December retail sales at 1330 GMT. This is the December data that has been delayed due to the shutdown. It's a key month for consumers and the consensus is for a 0.1% rise following the 0.2% climb in November. The control group is the spot to watch and it's forecast up 0.4%. Beware of the secular trend towards earlier Christmas shopping around Black Friday in November pushing sales ahead then leading to a miss in December.
|Consumer Prce Index (y/y)|
|1.9%||1.9%||Feb 15 1:30|
A deal to avoid a US government shutdown continues to lift risk assets, helping the S&P 500 to close above the 200-day moving average. NZD is the top performer after the RBNZ explicitly stated the odds of a rate cut have NOT increased, defying expectatations that it's changing tack as did the Fed and RBA. US CPI is up next, with the headline figure seen at 1.5% from 1.9% and core at 2.1% from 2.2%. A new update on EURUSD for Premium subscribers will be issued ahead of the NY bell.
Optimism about global growth and an apparent deal to end the US government shutdown have helped boost sentiment. Trump said he's unhappy there isn't more money for his border wall but hasn't said he will veto it. He could be expected to later use his executive authority to fund additional border measures.
Treasury yields climbed and the S&P 500 surged 35 points to 2744, finishing just above the 200-DMA. SPX futures are now at 2752. That level had called a rally last week. Global stocks joined in the rally and the US dollar, yen and Swiss franc softened in a classic risk-on move.
In the oil market, Saudi Arabia's energy minister said they could cut production by an additional 500k bpd in March and that led to a rally in WTI to $54.00. There's a minor double bottom forming at $51.23 that will be a spot to watch this month. USD/CAD fell back to Friday's post-jobs report lows.
UK CPI slowed to 1.8% in Jan from 2.1%, undershooting expectations of a 1.9% reading. Core CPI held at 1.9% y/y as expected.
Carney reiterated Tuesday that modest tightening over time is likely to be needed but falling inflation numbers and endless Brexit uncertainty argue against it. On that front, May's latest meaningful vote was delayed until late in the month and there were reports that Boris Johnson could support the current deal with a firm expiration date for the Irish backstop. There was also talk that May could quit in the summer once a deal is struck.
انخفض أداء أسعار الأسهم في جميع شركات الفوركس “بروكرز” المدرجة في البورصات العالمية عمومياً بشكل كبير منذ الصيف الماضي بسبب مزيج من انخفاض اهتمام المتداولين باالعملات المشفرة وتشديد القوانين والرقابة من قِبل هيئة الرقابة الأوروبية الرئيسية. وهنا نوضح لكم التفاصيل من خلال الرسوم البيانية والحقائق. المقال الكامل