Intraday Market Thoughts

Gold vs Oil Revisited

Nov 30, 2022 14:58 | by Ashraf Laidi

A lot has happened since I posted this XME/XLE chart from 3 weeks ago (click on this link and scroll down). Gold is a little stronger vs oil with XME/XLE ratio at 0.59 and the RSI is now testing the trendline resistance. As a reminder, XME is a major ETF for metals & mining stocks, while XLE is the biggest ETF for energy firms. Why am I mentioning this now? Metals (specifically gold) could further be boosted by the necessity for nations (especially oil-importers) to preserve the value of their monetary reserves against oil. Regardless of whether these nations are from the industrialized or less developed world, they must preserve their purchasing power of oil. See what Ghana agreed with the UAE about paying for their oil with gold in my tweet earlier this week. OPEC will be closely watching the ouctome of next week's EU discussions of the G7 price cap on Russian oil exports. Any prolonged decline in oil prices will see OPEC rushing to cut supplies, which would affirm the importance of stocking up on those few monetary/nonmonetary reserves that maintain their value relative to oil. And that would be no other than gold. Watch the RSI on XME/XLE.

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Gold vs Oil Revisited - Tweet Xme Xle Nov 30 (Chart 1)


USD No Comment الدولار الأمريكي بدون تعليق

Nov 28, 2022 13:53 | by Ashraf Laidi

Let this US dollar chart speak for itself.  دع هذا الرسم البياني للدولار الأمريكي يقوم بالكلام

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USD No Comment الدولار الأمريكي بدون تعليق - Dxy Monthly Nov 28 2022 (Chart 1)

Break, Correct, Kiss, Rebound

Nov 23, 2022 13:29 | by Ashraf Laidi

Last week I reiterated to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group that indices will maintain their gains by repeating the July action of breaking above the 100 DMA for a few days, pull back to kiss it it before rallying anew and completing another +17%-18% run from the low to rest at the 200DMA. The chart was part of the slides of my presentation in Amman last week. Whether indices extend their gains for a Santa Rally, depends on next week's core PCE release as well as CPI (Dec 13th) and the Fed decision (Dec 14th). Next week's release of the Nov jobs report will be important but not as crucial as CPI and PCE. Putting "what if" scenarios aside, we stick with the tactical frameworks shared with the WBG as of early Nov. 

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Break, Correct, Kiss, Rebound - Spx Slides Nov 23 2022 (Chart 1)

Chat on EURGBP دردشة عن

Nov 23, 2022 12:50 | by Ashraf Laidi

Vudeo short on EURGBP in English        تعليق عن يورو إسترليني بالعربي

Chat on EURGBP دردشة عن - Youtube Cov Short Eurgbp (Chart 1)

Recording of my Talk with LeadLag Report

Nov 18, 2022 13:02 | by Ashraf Laidi

Here is the recording of my Twitter Spaces chat with Michael Gayed of the LeadLag Report on 5th of November about FX, yields, metals and Fed policy. The wording of the title "Dollar is Finished" is a slight exageration by the publishers. I do see weakness ahead but but do not consider it "finished". Enjoy the session. And if you're in Amman, drop by the Interecontinental Hotel for Saturday's event.