Searching Through the Noise
| Trade Balance | -40.64B |
| Trade Balance | 0.08B |
| Trade Balance (OCT) | Dec 05 00:30 |
| ADP Employment Change (NOV) | 215K |
| ADP Employment Change | 215K |
| ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment | 52.5 |
| GDP (q/q) | 0.6% |
A series of major data points left no clear signal on the direction of the US economy or the Fed but created plenty of volatility. The yen was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged. Australian trade balance is on the agenda after AUD/USD breached 0.9000. Both of the gold shorts in the Premium Insights remain in progress, one of which awaits its final target at 1210. EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF also remain in progress. A new set of trades is out ahead of tomorrow's ECB/BoE meetings and autumn statement from the UK Treasury.
Traders hoping for a clear signal on the taper or no-taper debate didn't get it Wednesday. ADP employment rose to the highest of the year at 215K compared 173K and October data was also revised higher.The dollar kicked higher on the release but was reluctant to move ahead of the ISM non-manufacturing report and after the data was released it became clear why. The index fell to 53.9 from 55.0 and the employment component fell to the lowest since May.
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Latest Premium Update: USD via CHF
We are issuing 2 new trades and 3 charts in USDCHF as US yields rally ahead (and resulting from) strong US data, including Friday's NFP. The pre-FOMC path will contain the inevitable speculation of a tapering. Whether justifiable or not, we issue these trades, while both gold shorts, EURUSD and GBPUSD long remain in progress.
GBP is the best performing currency since the 2nd half of the year. Aside from continuing upside surprises in UK data, GBP remains fundamentally superior to EUR and USD due to these factors: Full article and analysis
Read More...The US dollar corrected and yen crosses slipped ahead of the large data risks coming up. The yen was the best performer while USD and CAD lagged. Australian GDP is the main event on the calendar. Existing trades in the Premium Insights are 1 EURUSD, 1 GBPUSD, 2 USDCHF and 2 in gold. All details are in the latest Premium Insights.
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