Posted May 23, 17:21

FX Atop Stocks, Bonds & Business Surveys

FX Atop Stocks, Bonds & Business Surveys Chart
May 23: 

Here are charts capturing the weakness in asset portfolios, business surveys and consumer sentiment alike. The simultaneous decline in various Fed and non-Fed business surveys (top panel), falling stocks and bond prices sustaining a loss of over $23 trillion (middle panel) and flattening yield curve (bottom panel). The latter illustrates that even bond vigilantes are growing skeptical of Fed's latest policy shift.  Don't be taken by the fancy charts and ask instead, “how do I trade these ideas?” and “what is the realistic timeframe?” Let's see. 

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Just as market sentiment began improving and the US dollar index showed its first 3-day losing run since March, selling resumes across the board. Yesterday's solid US retail sales gave Powell the confidence to stick to his “inflation-remains priority” rhetoric. Interestingly, DXY, EURUSD and US-10 year all stabilized at their 21-day moving averages.  No, this is neither a piece about “bear market rallies”, nor about “Intermarket technical confluences” covered successfully at last Thursday's market low. This in fact is about how the market could resume rallying into next week—despite Wednesday's wobble. 

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