You know the market is admittedly clueless about sterling's future direction when the experts themselves are saying: "it could go 1% up or 1% down" or, to hear an answer worded in the following manner: “If the Withdrawal Agreement is accepted…., then we will see ….and if it is rejected, then….”. I highlighted in last week's chart that implied option volatility on GBPUSD for appears excessively supressed, considering the sharp descent in spot GBPUSD. Those who are bearish GBP will tell you the market is being complacent and volatility is underpricing the risk of heightened political uncertainty (PM May having to leave and allowing a leadership vacuum behind her). Those who are bullish or neutral GBP will explain the relatively low volatility by either indicating that it's too early, referring to the vote in two weeks' time. Others would stated that a smooth Brexit is inevitable.

UK Labour leader Corbyn has just announced the breakdown of Brexit talks with PM May's Conservatives. May blamed it on divisions in the Labour Party. This sets set the stage for her departure, whether or not a Brexit withdrawal agreement passes in the first week of June. But what about the indicative votes? (see below). Could this eventually set the stage for a rebound in the pound as it fell once again Thursday. All currencies are down against the USD with the exception of the yen as risk dips back down. Monday's long DOW30 Premium trade was closed yesterday at 25870 for 450-pt gain. The other index trade remains open.