Posted Apr 9, 15:33

A Glimmer for Gold: Double Top or Bottom?

A Glimmer for Gold: Double Top or Bottom? Chart
Apr 09: 

Thursday's gold rally to $1758 triggered cheers of a doube-bottom rally, but today's pullback to $1730 raised familiar fears of a double top. US persisted on the upside after a brief interruption from a jump in yields when US PPI posted its biggest jump since Sept 2011 (God's previous peak). Canada jobs reports surprised on the upside (as did all other major G7 emloyment reports recently). CAD is the strongest of the day, while USD broadly lower on the week. We look further at the yellow metal ahead of next week's high profile events (US CPI, JPM & Goldman earnings and treasury bond auctions). 

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PREMIUM INSIGHTS Update: Jan 8, 19:20
FedSpeak Train & Unwinding Underway Apr 7, 2021 14:10: 

Little has changed in the underlying economic fundamentals this week but a potential unwinding is underway in indices, especially tech/Nasdaq. We will hear from 4 Fed speakers today (Evans, Kaplan, Barkin & Daly) see more below. More US data strength emerged yesterday with the JOLTS job openings at 7367K in Feb compared to 6900K expected. The US dollar stabilises against most currencies following a 2-day retreat, but remains weak vs EUR and CHF. The charts below show that since the start of the day (after 10 pm London), CHF and EUR are the only currency strengthening via USD, while the Year-to-Date chart shows GBP and CAD are the strongest currencies of the year, while gold and silver are weakest.  Today is an opportunity for the Fed to make waves


Risk on Right on Time Apr 5, 2021 16:52: 

The seasonally positive trend in April got traction almost immediately with stocks racing out of the game. The return to risk-on ascent with USD selling following stronger than expected US jobs report on Friday on the back of solid manufacturing ISM on Thursday and a new record services ISM on Monday. This suggests a return to the pattern of strong macro data inducing higher indices, better prospects of global growth and weaker JPY & USD. But is it too early for this theory? All points to higher commodity currencies and rising indices, but weakness in oil raises questions ahead. 


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