Intraday Market Thoughts Archives
Displaying results for week of Mar 08, 2026Is that it for Oil?
Keeping the fundamental basis for assessing oil aside, let's look at both US crude oil and Brent oil. Using 200-day moving average extensions, we find that today's high in US crude oil of $119.48 stood 88% above its 200 DMA, well above the 79% during the 1990 GulfWar, when it peaked at $40. Meanwhile, Brent oil hit a high of $119.50, equivalent of 80% above its 200-DMA. This compares to the 92% > 200-DMA in 1990. Does this mean Brent will not retrace until it matches the 92% > 200-DMA? Considering Brent's 200-DMA of $64, adding to it 92% we get $123. Will oil rally stop when Brent hits $123?. It is possible. US officials insist on finishing off Iran's arsenal, while reports of intercepted missiles in the Guld region continue.
Most importantly: Notice how gold is now behaving like a risk-asset, rising and falling along with indices. 5000 has proven to be a solid support and even fast pullbacks to 5030/50 have proven to precede violent rebounds.
