Intraday Market Thoughts Archives

The sudden rise in probabilities for Kevin Warsh to become as the next Fed chair from under 40% at around midnight London to 94% 1am London following a headline that Trump will announce his pick on Friday, as opposed to next week. Below is the chart of Polymarket odds for Warsh and other candidates against metals and DXY. Kevin Warsh, a former Fed board member during the Global Financial Crisis is known for his stance against inflation. In otherwords, he is perceived to be less dovish than Rieder, Waller or Hassett. I will publish a more detailed video today (Insta or Youtube) on why the market impact of next Fed Chair may not matter as many think.   

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I broke down the video below into Time Stamps for easier subject selection. The widely anticipated Fed decision to hold rates unchanged means that December 2025 was the final rate cut under the Fed chairmanship of Jerome Powell. He has two FOMC meetings left to chair (March and May with no meeting shcheduled for April). Most notable about yesterday is that the FOMC statement was less dovish than Powell's press conference. The evidence lies in the 10-15 mins charts, showing EURUSD and gold dropping a bit after the FOMC statement, which noted improvements in growth and employment. Once Powell struck a dovish tone in his press conference, gold stabilized, and took off rapidly after Powell wrapped it up. تم تقسيم الفيديو الى أجزاء زمنية

The other point helping metals was the lack of any substantial comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent about supporting the US dollar. The fact that there was no explicit remarks favouring the USD strenbth, extended the status quo. Saying the US did not interevene in capping USDJPY was not enough.

The below is a 1-year live coverage I did on Youtube immediately after the Fed. 80% of it is in Arabic and 20% in English.  Full Video with Time Stamps.

No, I will not tell you that Silver hit $110 and gold broke $5000 because I already warned several times over the past 4 weeks how and why it will happen in videos charts and writing. Instead, we need to talk about the Japanese yen, which dragged USDJPY by 1.7%, the biggest daily percentage decline since August. The reason? The NY Federal Reserve mentioned on Friday the possibility of assiting Japan in stabilizing yen weakness by selling yen. In the United States, the Treasury Department is responsible for setting currency policy and would authorize any intervention, which is then typically carried out by New York branch of the Federal Resereve, which is responsible for international monetary affairs of the US central bank such as currency swaps and facilities to manage dollar liquidity during periods of sharp currency swings such as 11 September 2001, the crisis of 2007-2008 and Eurozone crisis of 2009-2011. The high profile times the Federal Reserve assisted the Bank of Japan in selling yen to stabilise a soaring USDJPY rate were was in June 1998 and March 2011.

The chart below shows yield differentials (US minus Japan 10 yr yield) have dropped sharply as a result of soaring Japanese yields, but USDJPY has not followed lower. Will USDJPY follow lower? Will it retest the 151 trendline support? Our WhatsApp Bdcst Group members already know what I think. It will be a busy week (earnings, Fed and more chatter from Japan). 

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