Intraday Market Thoughts Archives
Displaying results for week of Feb 15, 2026Iran Polymarket & Fed Odds
The chart below shows the rising odds of a US Strike on Iran from Polymarket. My latest video shows gold's initial reluctance to rally alongside oil. We keep watching the odds from polymarket as well as the shrinking probabilities of March Fed rate cut. See full video here.
Gold, Iran & Oil
US Crude oil is up more than 6% on rising expectations of a US attack on Iran. Gold, however, is more muted, up 3%. Is there a reason? Yes, we know oil is more impacted by supply lines in Hormuz Strait. But gold is unable to show the same gains we saw last year on Iran tensions. Why? Will gold rally back to 5100? Can US crude hit $70?
Trade Already in Profit
If you missed yesterday's Live broadcast on Instagram explaining the "Perfect Trade", detailing the fundamental, technical and macometric arguments for entering it, then here is the link. The trade is already in the money after this morning's UK data. But more data are due tomorrow and Friday. The dynamics, covered in English and in Arabic are found nowherelse on the Internet. This is not only a journey of learning into unprecedented material, but also a money-making quest. Watch here. Start now.
I will go LIVE in 10 mins
I will discuss what could be the Perfect Trade on LIVE on my Instagram Channel. Ive already opened this trade 2 weeks ago and shall explain the fundamental and technical reasons for going long. The Live shall start at 10 pm GMT, 2 am Dubai Time. The fundamental triggers will start this week but the Live starts in 10 mins from this post. View the live on here.
