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Ashraf Laidi
(London, United Kingdom)
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 16, 2009 18:07
In Thread: More Risk Aversion til Pres. Inauguration
ROB, USDJPY has to break above 91 and then close above 91.50 for us to start taking it seriously. 4-hr chart still looks bearish.

JAMSHED, there are firms that trade CNY off the non-deliverable contracts but the spreads are enormous and maybe not worth the leverage. You can look them up online. Regarding my forecasts, I will consider that. But there's only so much I can provide for free on this website.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 16, 2009 9:19
In Thread: More Risk Aversion til Pres. Inauguration
DAVE, I expect USDJPY to drop back below 80 down to low 70 later in 2009 after some false bounces to he high 90s. USDCHF may drop towards partiy but not below it.

CARDIFFMAN, gold may drop back towards 750s but path towards 950 and still open in H2.

FRANCIS, EURUSD successfully held above the Nov trend line support and may end the month at 1.3450-1.3475.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 15, 2009 22:51
In Thread: More Risk Aversion til Pres. Inauguration
Steve, over what time periods are asking about? GBPJPY capped at 137 but we haven't yet seen the lows and 125 is inevitable. EURJPY seen at 110 in medium term.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 14, 2009 15:43
In Thread: European FX Surge vs. Commodity FX
Rob,

Yes, I think the latest deterioration in stocks could take down USDJPY towards 86.50 and 86. I still think there's a 80% chance USDJPY drops below 80 and onto 75 later this year.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 12, 2009 19:20
In Thread: European FX Surge vs. Commodity FX
Hi Rob,

$1.3250 is the next key support in EURUSD. A break below it may be supported at $1.28. But Im not too sure whether the next bout of risk aversion will be necessarily as negative for EURUSD as it was in H2 2008.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 12, 2009 15:56
In Thread: US Dollar Index 14-Year Chart
Hi Nour,

We're going back to a classic risk aversion trader whereby falling stocks help USD and GBP. I mentioned few weeks ago GBPUSD would test 1.54 then drop back towards $1.40. I think $1.4550 is a viable target for mid week and support stands temporary at $1.4375.

Sorry didnt reply to that email. No, the book cannot be foudn in Spain. Only in US, UK and Canada. But you can still order it from Amazon.com to wherever your are.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 9, 2009 11:15
In Thread: European FX Surge vs. Commodity FX
Brendan, I agree with your buy signal for EURUSD but as my latest piece mentions, EUR and GBP were rallying against commodity currencies. AUD is a commodity currency. Now this may change after NFP.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 9, 2009 7:32
In Thread: European FX Surge vs. Commodity FX
Hi Waqar, better than expected PPi will undoubtedly be positive for cable but those gains will likely quickly dissipate around the end of the morning London session ahead of NFP. Also watch UK industrial production where the m/m figure seen falling by less than the prior month -0.5% from -1.7%. Some are now talking about NFP possibly being -1 MILLION jobs. but unemp rate is crucial. $1.53800 remains good sell for a 100 pip gain.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 8, 2009 17:19
In Thread: European FX Surge vs. Commodity FX
Hi Dave,

Yes, the correlation is explained via risk appetite. Do not confound those commodities rallies that are boosted by improved risk appetite and those by global growth. The former is less sustainable. But today gold is up due to broad USD selloff and equities are just showing relief rally on Obama's tax cuts.

Watch not only payrolls tomorrow but also the unemployment rate and it breaks above 7%.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 7, 2009 15:55
In Thread: Risk Appetite Pushes the Envelope
Steve,

I hope you took advantage of it. where do you sell? well, that depends if you want to open a short position or take profits? I mentioned in the Intraday update the 100-day MA which has been broken. $1.52 is just a matter time (61.8% retracement). Weekly chart suggests further upside towards $1.5270 at which time time bears can open fresh positions.

Ashraf
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