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Posts by "bear"
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3 Posts by Anonymous "bear":
May 10th is BOE day...what are the chances of a 25bps raise?
UK CPI running at +3.0% with an upper limit of 2%?
Not sure what is holding this thing up? Even Soros advertised the need to lower the GBP to encourage trade preferences.
So, we have (2) two 900+ pip impulsive waves down on this embattled E/U pair and are now coming to the end of a 'shallow' correction. We should see another 700-900 pip move down...take today's high of 1.3826 and tell me why the rumor of a Greece bailout didn't take this pair up higher? The answer: It was nothing but noise folks!
The .618 retracement of the prior decline is at 1.3858...and the .236 retracement of the larger wave down from 1.5150 is 1.3942 (2nd option).
Now ask yourself...If I'm expecting a 700-900 pip move down from these levels...wouldn't that settle around Mr. Laidi's 1.32, Morgan Stanley's 1.2800, and Goldman Sachs 1.2000? It took the last retracement from 12/22 - 1/13 to move 400 pips in 21 days...in just 24 days we moved from 1.4600 - 1.3600 - smashing 1,000 pips down in nearly the same time.
I think when he gives you a figure, you need to sit down and analyze your responsibilities in executing the trade.
Here is a chart as of Dec 2009
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve
US houses a lot of German Gold also...so the top 2 figures are not entirely correct. Gold is so hard and cumbersome to move making it one of the most difficult 'monetary vehicles' to transport - no joke :) Making it one of the toughest to hedge against inflation or currency depreciation.
At the end of 2006, it was estimated that all the gold ever mined totaled 158,000 tonnes[wikipedia s37] and its January 2009 issue, National Geographic magazine writes: "In all of history, only 161,000 tons of gold have been mined, barely enough to fill two Olympic-size swimming pools." This can be represented by a cube with an edge length of about 20.28 meters.
The average gold mining and extraction costs[when?] are US$238/oz[citation needed] but these can vary widely depending on mining type and ore quality. In 2001, global mine production amounted to 2,604 tonnes, or 67% of total gold demand in that year.
Gold is so stable and so valuable that it is always recovered and recycled. There is no true consumption of gold in the economic sense; the stock of gold remains essentially constant while ownership shifts from one party to another.[wikipedia s39]
I'm still waiting for the meteor filled with gold and ice to hit my pool...until then, I work.