Posts by "callum"

@redstone I entered a SMALL positions on $cable earlier in the day.

Anyone touching GBP/JPY?

@Pipster - For JPY to fall, we are going to need 1) risk-aversion, any fresh debt crisis or 2) Chinese lending rate hikes or RMB appreciation. 3) anything else that triggers US equity market to fall. I won't be surprised if this long-weekend ahead would thin liquidity coupled with expectation of NFP +ve 190K extending crazy gains in the US equity markets, as it has done in the week of the last 2 long-weekends, ie, Thanks-Giving and Christmas.

@Pipster - the final hour of SPX and DJI were joyous! Volumes are back and it was down. I don't know as yet whether this is enough to trigger off the sell-off, I am *hoping* this could provide relief to existing shorts on JPY crosses, at least perhaps enough to book some small profits. ASX 200 futures already in -ve territory. Should be helping your AUDJPY short ;-)

@Pipster - there's more RBA speech Aust morning and some minor economic data. RBA Governor may come a hawkish - let's see. Also, ASX 200 open is now likely to mimick the DJI rally and try and force itself to go above 5,000.

This could possibly push JPY lower, thus driving AUDJPY higher?? Even AUDUSD seems to have held itself up relatively well vs. EUR or GBP.

Looking at other JPY crosses for clues:
1.

* NZDJPY closed above 38.2% fib between 2007 high and 2009 low.
* NZDJPY broke the 61.8% fib between the Jan high and Feb low. Will it close above it today or this week?

2. CADJPY - let's see where it closes, but looks pretty strong for now.

3. Gold - I have read Ashraf's latest IMT on Gold. This might drive AUD lower but AUDJPY??

I am anxious to get Ashraf and others view on possible target (intermediate / short-term) on USDJPY and JPY crosses.

@Pipstart,

Anything I write is my rather naive analysis but really hoping to hear all yours and rest of groups expert advice.

CADJPY has been so far tested the 90+ top several times since 2008. The 90 level so far appears to be a key resistance level,

1) On the monthly chart, the 100 simple moving average has so far been a resistance level so far, and possibly the 50 MA in 9150 area.
2) fib 38.2% between 2007 high and 2008 low also in sub 90 levels, just crossed it.

Just read Ashraf's IMT today on GOVERNMENTS TO THE RESCUE and RENEWED SURGE OF RISK APPETITE and his earlier calls USD JPY 9180 ....

Perhaps, this dampen any notion of tightening or anything Bernanke's Q&A today may signal, or any other hope of lending rates related news out of China. Should USDCAD over the next Qtr goes up towards 1.05/107 range at the back of stronger USDX, I am assuming this would be also much lower CADJPY??


Having said that, looking at the daily chart, CADJPY is above all the major daily moving averages, and momentum looks strong.

I would love to see how others are trading this pair.