EUR/GBP now certainly looks more interesting as target for short above 91 level, especially as today's EURO data (unemployment, PMI, etc) came in better than expected on top of expectation of some support on Greece (smile smile), while UK's PMI data came in weaker to add to the overall problems.
Will it aim for around 0.9165 region, which happens to coincide with 1) upper bollinger band on the weekly chart plus 2) 23.6% on f-retracement between June 09 low and Oct 09, 3) plus the Nov 09 high. Does it have legs to breach this? If it does, would it aim for the Oct 09 high?
There are plenty of talks of Chinese RMB appreciation vs the USD. What's are the different instruments anyone can recommend that allows buying into the RMB against the USD for foreigners?
@Qiman, nice post. I also keep track of Jim Roger's talks and we hear more of him now that he's moved to Singapore. His views/comments about the GBP is his standard speech. It's the same story any day in the year, any year. He's also had similar story on the US dollar, except he's been buying US dollar later part of last year. Jim's also been a Gold bull, but he's been quiet on Gold in recent months - maybe I missed of any recent talk on Gold. I am guessing that Jim's timing could coincide with Ashraf's 1020 call, as smart people like Ashraf and Jim probably could wait for Gold to come down to 1000 level before renewed interest in adding more (physical) Gold. ~Callum
@newpip - playing the RBA rate hike is a fun but tricky if you plan to trade around it. I normally notice that the days/hours before the rate decision, AUDUSD climbs up close to an extreme point, and right at the announcement, it could go in either direction, and usually downwards. Even if they raise the rates, it could still come down based on the commentaries. If rate's don't raise, expect a sharper sell-off. Even if AUDUSD goes up, it could be capped given the bigger move ahead of announcement. To play the RBA poist-announcement, the ASX has a more stable, predictable reaction. As for Gold and AUD correlations, their timings aren't always synchronized. For example, a sharp fall in Gold would drive AUD lower, but a sharp fall in AUD doesn't always drive Gold down, and a sharp raise in Gold doesn't always drive AUD higher.
Hi Ashraf, do you have any recommendation on where to find china economic data / calendar? I noticed most calendars, incl. the yours powered by Fxstreet don't cover address Chinese schedule.
@jj I am on short with gbpusd in anticipation of King speak and the tier 2 economic data at 0430 ET - Business Investment (QoQ) which also came in -5.80% vs fcst of 0.20%. Strangely, soon after breaking below 153, it bounced back into the 153. I am also looking to see how much does it retrace upwards at NY open as per Ashraf's IMT
@Magess, very interesting perspective. Keen to see your analysis.
I heard similar analysis of EURUSD in 1.50 region again this weel. I saw an analyst from DBS Bank (out of Singapore) on CNBC Asia or Bloomberg this week who is a overall dollar bear for this year, and expects the EURUSD into the 1.50 range. As for me personally, DBS's funds have been the worst performer out of my own portfolio of investments over the past 3 years - even their own relationship manager's don't recommend their own funds anymore - I am already so much underwater with them, that I take their analysis with a pinch of salt, to help me avoid wanting to puke.
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(11 months ago)
Poor start to a slow market day as Ezone PMIs disappoint. Im still keeping an eye on the rare (-2%) USD-GOLD combo,… https://t.co/UyRzWsRbs7(11 months ago)
-5% YTD is not good, while -7% from the year highs can be tough. Gold traders have their eyes fixated on this for n… https://t.co/NV5UMKsfNo(11 months ago)
ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (11 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (11 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (11 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(11 months ago)
Will it aim for around 0.9165 region, which happens to coincide with 1) upper bollinger band on the weekly chart plus 2) 23.6% on f-retracement between June 09 low and Oct 09, 3) plus the Nov 09 high. Does it have legs to breach this? If it does, would it aim for the Oct 09 high?
It's also interesting to note of GS's view on raising JPY as safe haven.
~Callum
Callum
I heard similar analysis of EURUSD in 1.50 region again this weel. I saw an analyst from DBS Bank (out of Singapore) on CNBC Asia or Bloomberg this week who is a overall dollar bear for this year, and expects the EURUSD into the 1.50 range. As for me personally, DBS's funds have been the worst performer out of my own portfolio of investments over the past 3 years - even their own relationship manager's don't recommend their own funds anymore - I am already so much underwater with them, that I take their analysis with a pinch of salt, to help me avoid wanting to puke.
Callum