Posts by "carlco"

Jan 1990- i started in the recruitment industry, i remember Jan 1991 very clearly, all vacancies were withdrawn 'it was a ghost town' i had queues of high paid senior managers looking for jobs that their cheaper paid deputies were now doing. It felt like the world had stopped turning then too. I have heard about as much doom and gloom as i can take! 877 a retracement built from fear and greed, aself fulfilling prophecy me thinks. How about looking at it from a bulls perspective? March low to June highs ?

Ashraf, if oil is falling to $50-5 and USD is supported by falling equities then surely that makes for better economic stimulus ie relatively cheap oil for the world ?
Also although index's have fallen today FTSE retrace on this rally i have key levels 4110 then 3988, S&P 845 then 813. BOTH RSI's have fallen below 30 and %K on both look set to cross later today/tomorrow, i just can't see more than 30 points coming off S&P before a rally. Although FTSE looks close to its 4110 support, it looks like a rally is imminent.

No. That was a low from total uncertainty that the banking system was in meltdown. I believe we will see further write downs, more banks going to the wall and even re-restructuring of debts, but so what, the damage is done, more interesting is the export potential from countries with weakened currencies, mining and oil will drag us out of this recession,led by BRIC's, not Western banking, they are the walking dead and will continue so, also, until CDO's from leveraged companies have been restructed (Enterprise Inns being a good example) which will be going on well into next year, is how i see the biggest hurdle for recovery, NOT because if the cash won't be available on reasonable refinancing terms, but if the market's believe it will be.
A retest of 3600-3700 unlikely (bar a disastrous failing or default), 'IF' we do, it will meet with a fierce rebound(triple low retest). If you draw another trend line from the oct '87 'crash' we should be at about 4850-5000, i reiterate i am bearish, but when you get a stimulus package this big this world wide, it's funny just how cautiously optimistic the markets have been.

**FTSE chart btw :0

as i write this gbpusd@16180 a psychological fibonacci level for traders ?