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Posts by "carlco"
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43 Posts by Anonymous "carlco":
Also although index's have fallen today FTSE retrace on this rally i have key levels 4110 then 3988, S&P 845 then 813. BOTH RSI's have fallen below 30 and %K on both look set to cross later today/tomorrow, i just can't see more than 30 points coming off S&P before a rally. Although FTSE looks close to its 4110 support, it looks like a rally is imminent.
A retest of 3600-3700 unlikely (bar a disastrous failing or default), 'IF' we do, it will meet with a fierce rebound(triple low retest). If you draw another trend line from the oct '87 'crash' we should be at about 4850-5000, i reiterate i am bearish, but when you get a stimulus package this big this world wide, it's funny just how cautiously optimistic the markets have been.
Q. As in Japans lost decade, I believe we are heading for a world of stagflation, this 0% interest rate policy i don't really understand the mechanics of it. My point is if it didn't work in Japan with a busted banking system and the rest of the world on boom, how is it going to work now ? Are we to rely on South America, India, Africa, Australia, Russia and China, to drag us out of recession ?
Q. Wouldn't it be best, bizarrely, if the US began raising interest rates now? that would be good for the dollar right? lowering oil prices and getting things moving ?
oh btw, i was listening to a podcast on companies Chapter11's in the US, the banks are sweeping accounts of some medium size firms for all their working capital, even when their assets are 10 times the borrowings, no wonder the West has come to a standstill, this example was a boat builder worth about 500-600 million, borrowings of 60million, it's a disgrace.
BUT. They should be boxing way more clever, they have a fixed currency anything rhetoric is fairly meaningless, in my humble opinion they have bitten the hand that has fed them for 10 years. If the Chinese got more creative they could write off those US Treasury bonds , maybe convert them in some form to the IMF, for the new currency, radical i know, it'll never happen i know, but the upside for the world and chinese kudos let alone Ying and Yang, would be REAL international economic stimulus. The USA would owe China so big time that it probably would concede to some form of joint default currency.
Bernanke was also sounding a little too confident giving a little growl when challenged about his authority/secrecy/transparency (his perceived intervention-but that's a whole new thread ;) )
Technically- after the dotcom bubble indices hit a low that hasn't been breached, you need to zoom out to 10year weekly chart, take in the landscape, this is probably the one thing that underlies my apparent confidence.
Is it fair that a few greedy banks created a $30 trillion mess ? (mess-not liability/loss). China, India, Brazil, Australia, are carrying on regardless - relatively unscathed by CDS/CMBS. (by the way CMBS although causing a headache in medium term refinancing aren't looking as big a potential loss as first feared with CDS ie much more equity in them) PLUS- ive just taken a look at volume on NYSE Nasdaq and it's BIG with more stocks advancing than declining from fridays end of day, also end of quarters, so here we go ready for a summer push and light trade can drift stock up really easy.
moral, if you don't want a bloody nose don't play with the school bully! and then run crying to teacher when you run out of tissue. no one likes a cry baby.