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Posts by "catnip"
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2148 Posts by Anonymous "catnip":
Only in Eurozone since there are so many of them and one in Brussels, too.
FED created sits there. Possibly some USD trillion. FED laments banks are not lending. In fact as the spreads tell, available credit shrinks. What would happen if banks would suddenly start lending? Inflation. What happens if the FED raises interest thus paying the banks more interest?
The banks won't lend. So what keeps the USD up? Recession. And deflation. It is all written well not in holy textbooks but in Uncle Scrooge comics. In order to keep value of fiat money up it must be stored in a money tank and stay there. Keep jobs scarce and payment low.
This is why I never trade indices. I know there has to be some balance or a sweet spot between deflation and inflation. Given the huge excess liquidity from quantitative easing sitting on bank balance sheets the scale clearly tilts to deflation and USDx consequently towards 85. Neither FED nor US Tsy could want a quick recovery they are planning recovery in a decade. USDx will keep weak vs commodity currencies as long as China piles up commodities. But not longer.
but NOK and SEK are too equal in value. Norway has a high savings rate and very low unemployment
so even if oil gas nickel should drop NOK will stay strong.
saying about what?
and short AUD NZD and possibly CAD. If PBOC hikes expect indices to crash some 2 to 3 weeks later.
JPY long is not a bad idea,too. UST futures have not clearly reacted yet.
it's same everywhere CBs should by all menas be independent of whatever politics but are not independent. I observe that as a great risk. If currencies were gold backed one could substitute
politicians with moderate AI and no one would note a difference. With fiat money one could substitute politicians with low-grade mediocre AI and many would note a difference.