Posts by "catnip"

What does not fit here?
The relative weakness of commodity currencies. I don't buy , in case of CAD, "disappointing labor market" and such.
And the sudden weakness of SEK. I relate this to loans EUR denominated to Eastern Europe economines
by swedish banks. Let's face it: the Greece debt crisis is a hype. Greece's economy contributes about 2% to the Eurozone total GDP. The debt of Eastern Europe in EUR , combined Lithuania to Ukraine to Romania is in the range of EUR trillions. This is the "bomb" . This is a geopolitical item as Russia's intend is , rather unshielded, to "get back" what the USSR lost, the European satelites.

The basic reason why I changed mind from short to long is EUR/SEK . I had been short a couple of times on this pari with good to excellent results. But as I know Swedish banks gave plenty of loans to Eastern Europe EUR denominated and saw SEK falling vs. EUR I got suspicious. The loans to Eastern Europa are a much bigger thread than Greece debts. Without IMF these loans were already non perfoming. Austrai an EUR member with a broadly diversified industry has 300% of GDP in loans to Eastern Eur. countries.

I expect GBP to drop vs EUR and USD along with EURUSD up. If 10 year note yield crosses 4% up
I would go long EUR/USD

It is generally overlooked that the debt of Eastern European economies are EUR denominated.
What would happen if EUR strengthens after a Gr bailout by whatever workaround of EURO treaties?
Then we have more than a pair of shoes to drop. First Portugal and Spain next all of those Eastern Europe economies whose lifeline is borrowing from IMF and EU at politically unsustainable terms.
Thus any recovery of the EUR is a step towards its end.

This is politics but could have influence on EUR. Please note the excerpt below appeared in an April 7
2010 article in the Kremlin-controlled RIA Novosti. Polish President Lech Kaczynski and central bank Governor Slawomir Skrzypek were killed today along with several key members of the countrys political elite when their plane crashed in western Russia.

Here is the excerpt from RIA Novosti April 7. :

"Regrettably, new myths are cropping up in today's Poland. The biggest myth has to do with "the threat from the East." The Kaczynski brothers - the president and former prime minister - have spoken freely about this danger, and until recently, Poland was under their sway.

One of the brothers, Lech, is still the president. In the last few weeks, he openly expressed his jealousy of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who was invited by Putin to visit Katyn. Until this year, memorial ceremonies at the graves of the Polish officers at Katyn were a strictly Polish affair. Polish presidents and ministers visited the site but unofficially. These were almost family events with the officers' relatives in attendance.

This is the first ceremony attended by Russian leaders but not the Polish president. Kaczynski's stated intention to visit Katyn three days later with the relatives of the dead and a propaganda landing party is a political gesture motivated more by discontent and envy than respect for the memory of the victims.

Kaczynski got the hint, and he will have to bear responsibility for his speech at a square in Tbilisi next to the war criminal Mikheil Saakashvili several days after the attack on Tskhinval - a speech filled with irresponsible anti-Russian rhetoric. Kaczynski may only be judged by history for his actions, but one thing is certain: he will not be remembered as a political leader ..."