Posts by "daveo"

The classical short entry was at 0.9750 when it took out the first pivot low @0.9755 on the daily chart. Prior to that pivot low it had made a 3 wave move up to Ashraf's first target at 1.0050 which happened to be perfect symmetry for a corrective move, thereby suggestive of new lows to follow below the 14th Oct low.

Only having data back to 1993 on this one makes it difficult to read now on the larger timeframes as my charts are showing all-time lows. However if I had to take a measured count from the oct 2000 high I would judge the pattern down may not yet be completed. Always lots of retracements along the way of course. First sign of a significant reversal would be back above the 1.0065. In the meantime play it scalpy I would suggest.

Yes Elder is seen by some as a stodgy ole boy but you really couldn't do any better than to absorb and implement his money management disciplines. His methodology for trading stocks is very basic indeed imo but I use his MM 5% and 2% rules at all times in my trading. This is a discipline which will protect you from the most drastic unforeseens which many traders ignore until its too late, it happened.

For trading psychology I particularly like Bill Williams early edition of "Trading Chaos". The later edition was JV with his daughter and also worth a read for methodologies. Also his "New Trading Dimensions". All are Wiley I think. Guys should also read up on "market profile", enough to gain a basic understanding of how ALL markets work (inc forex) You don't have to become an MP purist but you do need to understand what causes market fluctuations and the climax just prior to breakout. You can almost liken it to sex, markets reflect human behaviour and emotions. A thorough understanding has great value in reducing the frustrations. Trading is probably the most difficult occupation we could choose to pursue :-) easier and more predictable to become a brain surgeon.

One problem I often see is traders who are encumbered by their own intelligence. Its mostly about discipline rather than intelligence.

FX-1. You need to reduce your size radically. Forextrader is right. I liken your trading to employing a drunkard to manage a brewery, can only end in disaster.

Chloe, peace man, I only targeted your choice of wording when commentating on market action but I do get slightly alarmed at some of the things you say about the cad. You should read up on MP (market profile). This study will show you how ALL markets behave and forearm you that in the fullness of time the cad will change its behaviour and catch you wrong footed. Understanding volume over time has great value to offer all traders.

Forextrader. I can distinguish immediately an experienced trader from a novice and you fall into the former camp. Btw I exited my long audusd and my long CL. I still feel the somewhat pathetic risk appetite will hold up into the year end but the ASX index has been badly lagging the SPX and its time to take a breather from long risk appetite positions.

Catnip, I didnt really think the china PMI was much off the last few months #'s, give or take a twitch.

Ignore, have you been a floor trader in your time ?

I find it a frustration not to be able to show decent charts in this forum, we could teach each other for sure. Chart capture links for viewing in adobe or whatever would be the answer. I would like to study your channels and in turn have stuff to show you or others.

Catnip, not much help explaining moves after the event, my charts showed me the direction on several instruments, no hedging to soak up profits. Get it right stay in, get it wrong get out, kiss is good.

My advice would be to scalp trade the rest of the year or until liquidity increases. Some years the volume does not return until around the 10th Jan.

Ashraf opens this forum to all comers having, (as far as I can make out), been involved in other forums where some of the more experienced traders here were participating. This forum is open to traders of all levels covering a very wide spectrum indeed. Some are technical and some are fundamental and othere are a mixture of both.

What this forum severely lacks is a comprehensive sticky written by Ashraf to cover first and foremost a code of conduct.

Timeframes also need some serious comment with guidance for less experienced traders. Shorter term traders should be accomodated as well as daily/weekly timeframe.

The lack of any trade management guidance needs to be made extremely clear. i.e Ashraf only claims to make calls for broad strategy, it is not in his remit to get involved in the nitty gritty of trade management.

With such a variation in different levels of traders and different timeframes being traded it is hardly surprising to see so much conflict in the forum and that is a shame because Ashraf does a good job overall. He works his socks off and has to spend far too much time defending his corner every time something does not go exactly to plan. And I ask you gentlemen, when does the market ever go exactly to plan? Yes sometimes but never always.

Ashraf should take a full day away and devote it to writing a forum sticky. Something that is so comprehensive he can simply point to it every time there is a complaint. Would save him an awful lot of time in the long run.