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Posts by "daveo"

8683 Posts Total by "daveo":
8171 Posts by member
DaveO
(N.Cornwall, United Kingdom)
512 Posts by Anonymous "daveo":
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 18, 2010 16:47
In Thread: EUR
It is the younger generations that got us into the financial mess. All economic graduates in recent years need to go back to school to learn the meaning of a loan. Its that silly ! They studied the wrong model. Young wiz kids from multi level marketing replaced older generation bank managers in the mid 90's. They would now be about age 40/45. Wow they could sell sand to the arabs but they had no idea about business. Young people naturally have idealistic views but then catnip they grow up into men with some real experience in life.

I'm afraid the european parliament is a wonderful den of corruption and never likely to change. Members are not even accountable. Older people tend to be nationalistic for very good reason ! Your idealistic dream is finished. Its just a matter of time. And what do you think of Belgium's government in the last 6 months catnip ? yes I mean the capital of europe. What a farce.

I can also see the USA unwinding, particularly Texas. The union has been cheated. Politicians are a necessary evil but they only plan as far as the next election and most have no other experience in life except hot air and exploiting self interest. The union was originally governed by part time entrepreneurs from all sectors. It had a chance of working then. Now congress is nearly as bad as the european parliament. The world is in great danger of total implosion catnip but you seem to think that spinning money around in circles playing tricks can solve everything, real jobs and real work producing goods of value are what matter. You can look to germany for what I am talking about. Much of europe became excessively lazy and uncompetitive because it was your idealistic dream that created that situation. In the end eveything will revert back to the laws of nature. You won't even be able to trade markets for your living. You will be forced to produce something useful or choose to starve :-)

DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 18, 2010 12:58
In Thread: EUR
Catnip, the "one europe" idea was ruined when it started ! Forget being a european and become a loyal german citizen. Large is not beautiful, small is beautiful.

Read this please. JM has a lifetime of experience and his forecasts have been second to none.

Kicking the Can Down the Road
December 17, 2010

Different Cans for Different Folks
More Debt is NOT the Solution to Too Much Debt
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/index.asp
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 18, 2010 0:21
Cloe, lol, good luck my friend. I dont like the market action now. Shan't trade "properly" until after the new year except some scalps.

referring to your Q to Ashraf, if you look at his testimonial guys they are all young bucks compared to me :-) Not only professional fund managers ! I would like to make his one day sesion in London so might see you there ? Not sure if I can drag myself out of Cornwall, depends on the weather for 6 hr car drive :-)
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 17, 2010 21:57
Selling the family jewells always a sad situation. I do wonder if obama wagon want to see BP crushed, especially as outside contractors also had responsibility. Probably showing my ignorance here.

Looking at the CL daily chart the 7th dec high was a little shy of my first upside target @90.96 (127.2% ext ret of the swing down from 11th to 17th nov) Damn, I missed taking a short.

Right now the formation from the high looks like a bull flag but if it persists much longer the flag pole might fall over:-)

My correlation chart reflects what I have been seeing in NYSE breadth on stocks which been holding up on pure fumes (read y/e bonuses for elite players in declining holiday volume environment)

Crude been broadly sideways bucking CAD weakening & gold weakening but stocks edging up. You could say that on the correlation chart I been running CL is confused and hedging its bets right in the middle.

Summary:- DaveO no help whatsoever at this juncture.

DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 17, 2010 2:12
In Thread: EUR
Said, if you are referring to Uk QE, Mervyn King will hold off as long as he dare and continue to mention the device is available at every opportunity. Once the cuts start to bite in the next few months I expect unemployment to rise more than has been discussed as the private sector will not keep up taking the slack of public sector redundancies. I expect GDP to turn down. I also expect some anarchy second half of 2011. It is much easier to talk about making the deficit cuts than to put into practice. Lets see what happens. Maybe they will have to slow the program of cuts and speed the program of QE. Its annoying we have inflation, something that Brown used to try hide.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 17, 2010 1:47
In Thread: CHF
Ok Ashraf. I don't like the word "error". Your call reached your first target at 1.006 which I still have marked on my chart. Therefor a trade was successful. New parameters now understood. The drop below 0.9873 pivot low alerted me to bear mode as the 1.006 high was perfect symmetry for the 3 wave pattern which I now regard as a corrective thus suggestive of new lows to follow below 0.9462.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 17, 2010 1:02
In Thread: USD
Catnip, EU experiment was always flawed from the start. Anyone with one ounce of common sense could see that. Now we are seeing the beginning of the end. Good luck germany, all other nations should receive what they deserve comensurate to their degree of bad government, corruption and laziness.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 16, 2010 21:46
In Thread: EUR
Yea sub, my smaller timeframe work and reading internals gave me a long entry on EU at 3285 on monday. Let trade run and take me out at 3380 on tuesday after the high made for 95 pips. I then scalped again total net 63 pip on the way back down.

market been pretty scrappy recently for my own work due I think to holiday period starting, hence I scalp shorter term plays. same with GU, GJ, Gold, ES. Usually mkt low vol till about 10th Jan.

Take a well earnt rest Ashraf. If you get time write a code doc for this forum where you can describe how you work fundies alongside specific techs you use. Mention timeframes also because some particpants here may well be scalpers and scalp plays can range from a few pips to 200 pip or more depending upon views. When your calls are betwixt and between significant technical kra'a I see no reason why traders should not play both directions without causing any offence or argument -- that will be the day :-) Code doc might help.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 16, 2010 10:58
In Thread: EUR
Its amasing how one missed word (like "can") can alter the meaning and cause a problem. The nuances in market commentary are everything. Choice of words are everything. When Ashraf refers to H&S I watch his words like a hawk as often I myself read H&S a little differently to other traders. In this latest controvery that word he used "can" was extremely relevant. As someone else said earlier when an H&S first breaks either direction best to hold back a little for some degree of confirmation. So many traders love to fade direction and that's up to them and their style of trading so it doesn't matter what any of us might say and think there will always be disagreement :-)
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 16, 2010 0:17
In Thread: EUR
I turn my back on the forum for one day and look what happens :-) "Context" is the problem. Contrary timeframes can confuse all but the most experienced :-)

When I started focusing on what Ashraf was doing I quickly learnt that he aint into trade management, not in his remit he said. I was worried about newbs getting burnt just wanting to follow like sheep.

Respect his broad directional bias and trade both directions within that. Apply your own methodology and trade management. Remember to take money off the table and keep your stops tight. Know when your trade idea is violated.

Have a great holiday "Great Leader" (That's you Ashraf). Now I will duck the bullets:-)