Posts by "daveo"

Some interesting views of China position :-
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/index.asp

In many respects China have made very fast progress on various difficult issues in a very short timeframe.

It always surprises me when instant change is expected from "backward" nations like Africa, let alone an old culture such as China has. A few decades are of nothing in such context.

I often think that the world leading economy USA (recently downgraded) would do well to become less fixated on its own naval to learn some lessons from some of the older cultures. American materialism has been a very bad influence on us all and uk follows close behind I hasten to add.

Nader,

Not sure if your Q is in the context of fundamentals or technicals but for me personally I find the fundamentals for the "global" perspective have never been more complexed so whilst having a great interest in all the correlations in play I make sure my trading is purely based upon technicals.

Starting with the monthly chart perspective for the EURUSD a significant high was made in July 08 following a long move up from Oct 2000 low. Since the 08 high the market has been correcting the move up. My targets project a minimum level at 1.1436 to 1.1212 with a higher probabilty level at 1.0432. If EU goes to below 0.9900 then it will likely continue on down to below the Oct 2000 low which was at 0.8230 and the "correction" would no longer be designated a correction. At that point the technical map changes.

Now referencing the daily chart the market is currently correcting the move down from the 1.5143 high made in Nov 09 to the 1.1875 low in June this year. This is shaping up as a "simple" corrective pattern ABC (3 waves). Wave A up completed at 1.3333, wave B down at 1.2586 and wave C up still in progess.

I have minimum target level for completion of wave C up at 1.4042 although price has already satisfied the more classical chart analysis target when it reached 1.3690 yesterday. Other valid levels for termination are at 1.3795 and 1.3895 but 1.4042 is my preferred target.

If I have my analysis wrong I shall be alerted if price exceeds an important cluster level at 1.4440ish. That event would require me to change my bias to one of two possible alternate counts. Whilst there is a very great degree of subjectivity to applying fundamental analysis I'm afraid that technical analysis also has some degree of subjectivity so we cannot expect to be right all of the time. What matters in this endeavour is to know exactly at what point we are proven wrong. i.e never marry our analysis, it is only a romance until validated.

My main current concern with EU is the move up from the 1.2643 low made on the 10th Sept lacks structure (pattern). This makes it difficult to narrow down a completion target for the next significant high. IME when we see an impulsive move like this lacking any structure very often the entire move will be equally rapidly retraced. Therefore I am on alert for anything to happen. Ideally price needs to correct down several daily bars from where it is now and then make a final move up to the area of 1.4042/1.4440.

Trading this move up on a daily timeframe basis requires the use of a trailing stop. Ideally playing at least 3 units so each can be taken off at significant target levels. The trailing stop is gradually tightened as the market becomes over extended and signs of momentum decline.

Hope this gives you some food for thought. You need to develop your own maps to navigate the markets. Things that suit you personally. Otherwise you will be completely lost in the fog with your GPS broken and that can be a very traumatic experience !

Subway,

I developed an aversion to gann early in my trading career. Went to expensive workshops for a period of initiation. The gann geeser taught me levels at every 2.5% and after day 3 of the lessons I discovered he had bastardised Gann's work with his own modifications. When it came to saying adios I commented that he really couldn't go wrong with his levels and I felt mighty dissapointed :-) Needless to say no refund was offered.

You are right about "how we use our selected tools". Guess that applies for apre' trading activities also. I am a firm believer in sticking with what works for us as individuals and not many traders are able to use EWA objectively is one good example of one size cannot fit all. The important thing imho is that we create a map to navigate the markets. My maps are founded upon EWA and MP. I integrate the pattern work with volume studies, fibs & symmetry. Market internals like breadth,vix, tick, trin play a part for intra day moves with stock indices. Shame the algo developments ultimately destroyed bid/ask delta analysis. Come to that they have pretty much rendered NYSE volume a complete nonsence.

I have noticed markets changing over the duration of my experience and its important to identify change quickly and adapt accordingly. No good moaning that something no longer works !

Jamshed,

Interesting post you make. I been musing over my DX chart and reckon if it breaks 77.40 we will see 74.73 below the trend support line.

As for Germany, if I were advising them I would advocate they exit the EUR currency at the earliest possible convenience.

VOTE:Below 70

My daily chart telling me the move up from the May low is corrective and high probability the high is very near, beyond which I expect new lows below 64. Timing of course to hit 69.9 is not easy to nail. All fundamentals aside I shall be watching the chart for confirmation or invalidation and trade accordingly.