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Posts by "djellal"
751 Posts Total by "djellal":
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Posts by Anonymous "djellal":
at 1.40 we can hope BNS reaction, so it's a good level to enter long short term eurchf
I agree with you about treaties, but in this situation treaties seem to be pushed aside, situation of deficits becomes critic, also the help to the Greek government is made to the detriment of treaties.
This situation is going to urge Germans to the leave the euro or to put lot of pressures in order to exclude members.
France could lose his rating AAA in few time because the situation is also very critic. In that case the Germans shall leave the Eurozone, it is about a reality and not about a fantasy.
The Europeans have interest has to create European bonds emanating from the ECB for example in order to have better control on deficits
But i'm out before ECB meeting today
The Swiss National Bank slashed interest rates to a record-low of 0.25% in March 2009. Some observers say it could begin raising rates again in the second half of this year.
dj
It's time to short EurCHF !
0848 GMT [Dow Jones] Swiss National Bank president Philipp Hildebrand provided no fresh clues on its currency intervention policy in his speech Friday, says Bank Sarasin. "There isn't much that's new, and I think that is reflected by the steady market reaction," says economist Ursina Kubli. The SNB may decide to slowly exit its policy of curbing excessive franc gains once the Swiss economic recovery is better established, she adds. "The SNB may then tolerate EUR/CHF at around 1.40," she notes.
dj
where did you found this news about Yuan revaluation for today, please ?
dj
but fundamentaly I think that the meetings of this weekend are again going to bring nothing as regards the grece, the help is already in the prices and the movement of Friday seems to be the same that 15 days ago on eurusd. A big gap gets ready for the Sunday evening opening for the decline.
djellal
UBS
EURUSD 1.3818 Key
The Trend-Cycle model is far from perfect. Last week, it's negative readings (red bars) had me looking at the recovery from 1.3283 as a small wave .2 correction. It turned out to be much more.
Notice today that the model is turning neutral (black bar). It's the first cyclical evidence that the bear trend is indeed taking a notable breather, at a minimum. It also brings up the possibility of a rather bullish wave count. Note that the downswing from 1.5144 (November 25 high) to 1.3268 (March 25 low) now looks liked a completed five-wave move for wave ((i)). That means wave ((ii)) has been correcting higher from 1.3268.
It's maintaining the necessary three-leg path, but so far it's a bit stunted in relationship to wave ((i)). Normally, a correction of this degree would retrace 0.382 of wave (i) and/or reach the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree. In this case, those levels come in at 1.3818 and 1.3985, respectively.
Finally, and this is just one possibility, second waves often retrace 0.618 of the respective first waves. So in this case, if 1.3818/1.3985 cannot hold back this correction, 1.4427 (0.618 of 1.5144-1.3268 would certainly become a possibility.