Posts by "harmonycptl"

Thanks again.

Jason

Ashraf,

Been out on vacation - missed all the latest action.

I lisened intently to latest Bernanke speach and although there is no mention of immediate cuts to the discount rate, but he did say that potential downside risks appear worse and the Fed is ready to resond if these risks actually materialize, which seems to signal a rate cut in the near future.

Do you think that the marketplace has already priced in this potential cut, and continued deleveraging will override any actual rate cut(s)?

Steve, Ashraf

Have you recently traded the CAD/JPYcross? It is currently in consolidation of recent bullish trend and at the low range of yesterdays highs. Also sensitive to the volatility of Oil.

Thinking of going long if there is a dip to 101.60 - 101.70 range.

Steve:

Fundamentals are still suporting a bullish sentiment on GBP/USD: Carry and Bond trades, combined with expectations of Fed easing and possible commidity inflationary pressures.

The Fed and Treasurey is basically caught in a vice between maintaining capital inflows (Treasury sales pricing) and maintaining credit markets through easing.
Foreign investment is viewing US Treasuries as relatively more risky leading to demand for better pricing on Yields. At the same time LIBOR rates are climbing, inducing credit disruption in the commercial markets.

Technicals show that GBP/USD could reach as high as 1.87 (2 day old highs), before Bear correction, a break below 1.84 would indicate possible shifting sentiment. However sentiment is very Bearish on the USD so caution is advised.Given the record incease in WTI today, I think that Ashraf's advice on Gold is sound.

Gold also showing some effect of early risk aversion. Markets are giving converging signals on a weakening dollar.