Posts by "harmonycptl"

I am in full agreement with your assessment of the current conditions.

What is your feeling on the risk appetite of the true Creditors of this plan - Foreign governements and sovereign funds currently buying treasuries. At the very least they will strongly demand better pricing, which would conflict with the Fed's desire to keep domestic debt prices low so as to keep the credit lines flowing through the markets.
Eventually, Foreign investors sentiment will judge the US paper to risky and flee to safety.

I believe the Fed will have to finally admit to the public, no matter the political fallout, that the Country as a whole has been living on borrowed money and time, and that the Creditors have become concerned with the amount of risk present in the US economy.

It is at this point that I believe the short term corrective rallies will turn and the Bears will come hungrily out of hibernation, finally selling off and removing the "bad money" from the markets. Foreign investment will stay on the sidelines as the dollar, bond and equities markets effectively reach new "real" equilibrium from the current nominal highs.

Once this has ocurred the U.S markets may be in for one of the largest rallies in history as sentiment will have reversed and Foreign investors will shift from agnostic to bulish.

I will be staying long Gold, taking no other positions over the next 2-3 week. Closely monitoring for the correction to end, and calculating where to enter USD/JPY short position.

How long do you foresee the Bear conditions persisting post correction?

I am headquartered in San Francisco.

Do you ever travel to Northern California?

Correction your lecture was given on Friday the 12th. of Sept.

Yes - I have read the article and attended your lecture at the Las Vegas conference.

The gold/oil ratio gives a concise view of sentiment and fundamentals together. Simple and insightful at the same time as well, it is an indicator I will continue to use.

Do you believe there are further surprises in store as the balance sheets of AIG, Lehman, Merril et al. are fully scrutinized by their new masters, and assets are given a real valuation as opposed to what is listed? If eighty five cents on the dollar on balance, becomes 8.5 cents in reality every other investment house will have to revalue their balance sheets accordingly and we could see further worsening of the credit markets. Any thoughts?

USD/CAD hitting strong resistance as it approaches monthly highs of 1.0821.
I believe buyer exhaution is imminent and am shorting at 1.08025 - high potential for bull traps and rapid sell-off - with stop set at 1.0825, just above monthly high.