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Posts by "macrosam"

189 Posts Total by "macrosam":
184 Posts by member
macrosam
(United States)
5 Posts by Anonymous "macrosam":
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 23:27
In Thread: USD
I still believe the USD is holding its uptrendline, back above the 50DMA, poor afterhours reaction to GOOG and AMD, GE and BAC report tomorrow, risk aversion or at least profit taking may in store
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 13:48
In Thread: USD
Posted this in the wrong thread (EUR):

BLS attributing jobless claims # to administrative issues, market focusing more on Empire State # which came out hot but the glaring observation is the increase in prices paid and the decrease in prices received, implying pressure on profit margins going forward.

Tons of data coming out today mixed in with Fed speak.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 13:48
In Thread: EUR
BLS attributing jobless claims # to administrative issues, market focusing more on Empire State # which came out hot but the glaring observation is the increase in prices paid and the decrease in prices received, implying pressure on profit margins going forward.

Tons of data coming out today mixed in with Fed speak.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 12:30
In Thread: EUR
Stopped out overnight at 1.3635, thank goodness.

GGB yield curve almost as ugly as it was pre-last weekend

2y 6.74
3y 7.26
4y 7.47
5y 7.21
6y 7.29
7y 7.35
8y 7.32
9y 7.34
10y 7.16
15y 7.19
20y 0.00
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 10:41
In Thread: EUR
Greece considering cancelling USD bond issuance due to lack of interest.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 2:23
In Thread: USD
Reuters reporing China GDP at 11.9%
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 1:21
In Thread: EUR
That should be 2002 and then 2008, not 2003, my apologies.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 1:18
In Thread: EUR
I would be hesitant to go against risk assets at the very least until earnings season has passed. And though it has experienced recent weakness, I do believe the USD will maintain an uptrend, though it may not find solid support until the 79.50 area (around its 100 day, it looks like the 50 day will not hold in the near term).

Like many here, I am a long-term gold bull as well but will trade the trends in the interim as I don't believe gold will fully breakout until there is confirmed velocity to this money, though the market will do everything it can to front-run that velocity. I would not be surprised to a new high set in 2010, however, I personally would not be comfortable entering into a locked in long (i.e. you will not trade around that core position) any earlier than the 200 day MA. If the 200 day fails, then I would expect it to occur in the midst of a double-dip but would anticipate a bounce in the low-to-mid 800s, establishing a higher high (higher than the 700 area we capitulated to in 2007) and revealing a trendline drawn from the lows in 2003 and 2008, essentially the last two times gold touched or came extremely close to touching the 200 day MA as support.

Just my personal current outlook, nothing more.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 22:54
In Thread: EUR
I could see that occurring.

"The European Union is suing Greece to force it to repay 230 million euros (about $313 million) in what it says were illegal subsidies given to the Hellenic Shipyards between 1996 and 2002, the European Commission said April 14, AFP reported. EU Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said in a statement that Greece had not followed EU conditions when giving the aid to the financially stricken shipyards."
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 19:40
In Thread: USD
I always enjoy reading your posts and analysis, catnip.

The USD does indeed look like it will fail the trendline as it is now under the 50day EMA for the majority of this day, but I also view this as a great opportunity for an explosive USD rally catching many by surprise off what appears to be vulnerable support.